Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SEVERE WEATHER HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO SEVERE TSTM WATCH 331 HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE INTO CENTRAL MN BY THEN AND PROVIDE THE BETTER FOCUS
THERE. OTHER THAN THE SEVERE WX ARE ALSO MONITORING FOR FLOODING.
THE BARNES COUNTY AREA HAS BEEN HAMMERED WHERE WE HAVE HAD
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. OF
COURSE THE RANSOM/RICHLAND/SARGENT COUNTY AREA WAS HIT WITH LOTS
OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
LATE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

CONVECTION TIMING AND STRENGTH CONTINUES TO BE THE HEADACHE FOR
THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM NEAR MAYVILLE NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. NONE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING AND HIGH CAPE VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND
EXTENDING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH HAS
DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA SO FAR. THINK THAT AS A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SD BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AND SOME COULD
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 40 KTS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS BETTER FURTHER WEST. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP VERY HIGH POPS FROM EASTERN ND EARLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MN LATER TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROBABLE SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE
IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND
WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THINK AT
THIS POINT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN A BIT OF A BREAK DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY ON POPS HOWEVER AS THERE WAS A
BREAK EXPECTED FOR TODAY THAT DID NOT MATERIALIZE. CONTINUED TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE BIGGEST INFLUENCES WILL BE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS THE LOWS
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS GETTING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 50-70 POPS AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING. SEVERITY IS LESS CERTAIN BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

GFS/ECMWF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF H500
CLOSED LOW...WITH ECMWF PLACING LOW AT 18Z SUN OVER WEST CENTRAL
SASK COMPARED TO GFS PLACEMENT OVER THE BOTTINEAU ND REGION. THIS
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BETTER PINPOINT SUNDAY RAIN/CONVECTION
ACTIVITY...BUT DO LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
MON MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT (ON BOTH MODELS)...AND
HAVE REMOVED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR MON. SW
FLOW PATTERN THEN RETURNS MON NIGHT...WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALTHOUGH SFC PATTERNS DIFFER. WILL BE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE
MORNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEY. BEYOND MON...UPPER PATTERN
COMPARISON FURTHER DIVERGES BUT BOTH INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK...AND LOW CHANCE POPS MAKE SENSE WITH STORM TRACK
GENERALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGING BRINGING DRIER WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

TRIED TO HIT THE BEST TSTM THREAT IN THE EVENING WITH A DECREASING
THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DYING WINDS TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1018 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST FARGO              46.87N 96.90W
06/20/2013  E60 MPH          CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS AND NICKEL HAIL.

&&

DRIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1030 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CASSELTON               46.90N 97.21W
06/20/2013  M3.80 INCH       CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            UPDATE TO PREVIOUS TOTAL

&&

DRIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1031 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHAFFEE                 46.77N 97.35W
06/20/2013  M3.29 INCH       CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            FELL IN 90 MINUTES

&&

DRIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1032 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             OTTERTAIL               46.43N 95.56W
06/20/2013  M1.75 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DRIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1033 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     HAIL             3 ESE RICHVILLE         46.49N 95.57W
06/20/2013  M2.00 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DRIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1050 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOLVERTON               46.56N 96.74W
06/20/2013                   WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TO 5 INCH TREE BRANCHES FELLED.

&&

WJB