Alert archive / Minnesota / Flood Watches in 2013

Flood Watch 2, NWS Grand Forks, ND

May 20, 201318 counties in Minnesota; 17 counties in North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this flood watch at May 20, 2013, 7:15 AM CDT for 18 counties in Minnesota; 17 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 29 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 20, 2013, 7:15 AM CDT (12:15 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2013, 12:16 PM CDT
In force
29 hr
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Flood severity
None
All 35 counties

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 290 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2013-05-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2013-05-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 174 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
483 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
174 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

687 
WGUS63 KFGF 201215
FFAFGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...MORE RAIN ON TOP OF SOGGY GROUND...

.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY ON TOP OF
SOME PLACES THAT HAVE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...SOME AREAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.  

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-220000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FA.A.0002.130520T1215Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...
NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...
MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...
ADAMS
715 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST
  BECKER...EAST MARSHALL...EAST OTTER TAIL...EAST POLK...GRANT... 
  HUBBARD...KITTSON...LAKE
  OF THE WOODS...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN... NORTH BELTRAMI...NORTH
  CLEARWATER...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE... ROSEAU...SOUTH
  BELTRAMI...SOUTH CLEARWATER...WADENA...WEST BECKER...WEST
  MARSHALL...WEST OTTER TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN NORTH
  DAKOTA...BARNES...BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER... EASTERN
  WALSH...EDDY...GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...
  PEMBINA...RAMSEY...RANSOM...RICHLAND...SARGENT...STEELE...
  TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN WALSH.

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST
  FEW DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY
  AND TOMORROW ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. SOME OVERLAND
  AREAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

JR
5 follow-up statements
143 
WGUS63 KFGF 202025
FFAFGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...STEADY RAIN TO CONTINUE...

.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-220000-
/O.CON.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...
NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...
MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...
ADAMS
325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST BECKER...EAST 
  MARSHALL...EAST OTTER TAIL...EAST POLK...GRANT...HUBBARD... 
  KITTSON...LAKE OF THE WOODS...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN...NORTH 
  BELTRAMI...NORTH CLEARWATER...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE...ROSEAU...
   SOUTH BELTRAMI...SOUTH CLEARWATER...WADENA...WEST BECKER... 
  WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN 
  NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES...BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER...EASTERN 
  WALSH...EDDY...GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...PEMBINA... 
  RAMSEY...RANSOM...RICHLAND...SARGENT...STEELE...TOWNER... 
  TRAILL AND WESTERN WALSH. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* THE AREA HAS RECEIVED TWO TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW
  DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
  RAIN ENDS TUESDAY EVENING. SOME OVERLAND AREAL FLOODING REMAINS
  POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
956 
WGUS63 KFGF 210409
FFAFGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE...

.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. 

FLOOD WATERS ARE ON THE VERGE OF GOING OVER THE EMERGENCY SPILLWAY
AT THE RENWICK DAM. THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF CAVALIER.
IF THIS DAM FAILS THE CITIES OF AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE MAY
NEED TO BE EVACUATED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR THIS
SITUATION. 

NDZ008-211800-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.FF.A.0001.130521T0409Z-130521T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEMBINA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CAVALIER
1109 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...AKRA....CAVALIER...AND
  BATHGATE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN AFFECT AS SERIOUS FLOODING
  CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 

* FLOOD WATERS ARE ON THE VERGE OF GOING OVER THE EMERGENCY
  SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
  CAVALIER. IF THIS DAM FAILS THE CITIES OF AKRA...CAVALIER...AND
  BATHGATE MAY NEED TO BE EVACUATED. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&


$$

NDZ016-210515-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EASTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAFTON
1109 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN AFFECT AS SERIOUS FLOODING
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 

$$

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-220000-
/O.CON.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...
FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...ADAMS
1109 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST BECKER...EAST 
  MARSHALL...EAST OTTER TAIL...EAST POLK...GRANT...HUBBARD... 
  KITTSON...LAKE OF THE WOODS...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN...NORTH 
  BELTRAMI...NORTH CLEARWATER...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE...ROSEAU...
   SOUTH BELTRAMI...SOUTH CLEARWATER...WADENA...WEST BECKER... 
  WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN 
  NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES...BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER...EDDY... 
  GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...RAMSEY...RANSOM...RICHLAND... 
  SARGENT...STEELE...TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN WALSH. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* THE AREA HAS RECEIVED TWO TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW
  DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. OVERLAND
  AREAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
TG
312 
WGUS63 KFGF 210442
FFAFGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE...

.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

FLOOD WATERS ARE ON THE VERGE OF GOING OVER THE EMERGENCY
SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
CAVALIER. AROUND 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS DAM...AND
THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE EMERGENCY SPILLWAY. THE BEST
ESTIMATE IS FOR THE STAGE AT AKRA TO RISE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
FEET...CRESTING BETWEEN 19 AND 20 FEET SOMETIME BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATER WOULD THEN AFFECT THE CITIES OF CAVALIER AND
BATHGATE. THIS AMOUNT OF WATER HAS NOT OCCURRED SINCE 1950 AND IT
IS UNSURE HOW AREAS ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED.
INFORMATION FROM THE PEMBINA COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT INDICATES
THAT THE DAM IS NOT IN DANGER OF FAILING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WOULD AFFECT
AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE MAY LEAD TO EVACUATIONS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR THIS SITUATION.

NDZ008-211800-
/O.CON.KFGF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130521T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEMBINA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CAVALIER
1142 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREAS...AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* FLOOD WATERS ARE ON THE VERGE OF GOING OVER THE EMERGENCY
  SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
  CAVALIER. AROUND 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS
  DAM...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE EMERGENCY
  SPILLWAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR THE STAGE AT AKRA TO RISE AN
  ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET...CRESTING BETWEEN 19 AND 20 FEET
  SOMETIME BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WATER WOULD THEN AFFECT THE
  CITIES OF CAVALIER AND BATHGATE. THIS AMOUNT OF WATER HAS NOT
  OCCURRED SINCE 1950 AND IT IS UNSURE HOW AREAS ALONG THE TONGUE
  RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED. INFORMATION FROM THE PEMBINA COUNTY
  SHERIFF DEPARTMENT INDICATES THAT THE DAM IS NOT IN DANGER OF
  FAILING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT
  WOULD AFFECT AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE MAY LEAD TO
  EVACUATIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-220000-
/O.CON.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...
FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...ADAMS
1142 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST BECKER...EAST 
  MARSHALL...EAST OTTER TAIL...EAST POLK...GRANT...HUBBARD... 
  KITTSON...LAKE OF THE WOODS...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN...NORTH 
  BELTRAMI...NORTH CLEARWATER...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE...ROSEAU...
   SOUTH BELTRAMI...SOUTH CLEARWATER...WADENA...WEST BECKER... 
  WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN 
  NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES...BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER...EDDY... 
  GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...RAMSEY...RANSOM...RICHLAND... 
  SARGENT...STEELE...TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN WALSH. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* THE AREA HAS RECEIVED TWO TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW
  DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. OVERLAND
  AREAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
TG
667 
WGUS63 KFGF 211206
FFAFGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
706 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE...

.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
RAIN TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

FLOOD WATERS ARE ON THE VERGE OF GOING OVER THE EMERGENCY
SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
CAVALIER. AROUND 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS DAM...
AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE EMERGENCY SPILLWAY. THE
BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR THE STAGE AT AKRA TO RISE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO
3 FEET...CRESTING BETWEEN 19 AND 20 FEET SOMETIME BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATER WOULD THEN AFFECT THE CITIES OF CAVALIER
AND BATHGATE. THIS AMOUNT OF WATER HAS NOT OCCURRED SINCE
1950 AND IT IS UNSURE HOW AREAS ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER WILL BE
AFFECTED. INFORMATION FROM THE PEMBINA COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT
INDICATES THAT THE DAM IS NOT IN DANGER OF FAILING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WOULD AFFECT AKRA...
CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE MAY LEAD TO EVACUATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR THIS SITUATION.

NDZ008-211800-
/O.CON.KFGF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130521T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEMBINA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CAVALIER
706 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREA...PEMBINA. 

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* FLOOD WATERS ARE ON THE VERGE OF GOING OVER THE EMERGENCY 
  SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST 
  OF CAVALIER. AROUND 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS 
  DAM...AND THE WATER IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE EMERGENCY 
  SPILLWAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR THE STAGE AT AKRA TO RISE 
  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET...CRESTING BETWEEN 19 AND 20 FEET 
  SOMETIME BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WATER WOULD THEN AFFECT 
  THE CITIES OF CAVALIER AND BATHGATE. THIS AMOUNT OF WATER HAS 
  NOT OCCURRED SINCE 1950 AND IT IS UNSURE HOW AREAS ALONG THE 
  TONGUE RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED. INFORMATION FROM THE PEMBINA 
  COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT INDICATES THAT THE DAM IS NOT IN 
  DANGER OF FAILING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF 
  WATER THAT WOULD AFFECT AKRA...CAVALIER...AND BATHGATE MAY 
  LEAD TO EVACUATIONS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-220000-
/O.CON.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...
FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...ADAMS
706 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST BECKER...EAST 
  MARSHALL...EAST OTTER TAIL...EAST POLK...GRANT...HUBBARD... 
  KITTSON...LAKE OF THE WOODS...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN...NORTH 
  BELTRAMI...NORTH CLEARWATER...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE...ROSEAU...
   SOUTH BELTRAMI...SOUTH CLEARWATER...WADENA...WEST BECKER... 
  WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN 
  NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES...BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER...EDDY... 
  GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...RAMSEY...RANSOM...RICHLAND... 
  SARGENT...STEELE...TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN WALSH. 

* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* THE AREA HAS RECEIVED TWO TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW
  DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
  OVERLAND AREAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
039 
WGUS63 KFGF 211716
FFAFGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...STORM FINALLY WINDING DOWN...

.THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AREAS THAT ARE IN FLOOD ARE TRANSITIONING TO RIVER
FLOOD POINT WARNINGS AND UNDER AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR
AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM ON THE TONGUE RIVER. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THE DAM SITE AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A
CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. OFFICIALS
ARE STILL MONITORING THE DAM AND THE NEW CLAY LEVEE ON TOP FOR ANY
EROSION AND THIS MONITORING WILL NEED TO BE DONE INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS BEHIND IT. 


MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211830-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...
FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...ADAMS
1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. 

ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE
FLOODING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RIVER FLOOD AND AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS. 

$$

NDZ008-221900-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130522T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEMBINA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CAVALIER
1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREA...LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM INCLUDING THE
  TOWNS OF AKRA...CAVALIER...BATHGATE AND PEMBINA.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* AN EMERGENCY CLAY LEVEE HAS BEEN BUILT ON TOP OF THE RENWICK DAM
  TO HOLD BACK THE WATER. OFFICIALS WILL BE MONITORING THE DAM AND
  CLAY LEVEE ON TOP FOR ANY BREACHES AS THE WATER REMAINS VERY
  HIGH BEHIND THE DAM ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER. IT THE DAM OR LEVEE
  IS IN FAILURE OF BREACHING A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. 


* THIS DAM IS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF CAVALIER. AROUND 7 TO 9
  INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS DAM AND UPSTREAM TO JUST
  SOUTH OF WALHALLA. T


A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DTR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at May 20, 7:08 AM CDT, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 7:08 AM CDT, 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN TO GO WITH AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS COMING IN SHOW THAT THE RADAR
HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL IN SPOTS. GIVEN THAT WE ALREADY
HAVE SOME REPORTS OF RURAL ROADS IN PEMBINA COUNTY UNDER DUE TO
OVERLAND FLOODING AND THE FACT THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR MORE ON
TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND THROUGH TOMORROW...WILL GO WITH A
WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. ALSO EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY TO 06Z AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS PICKING UP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AS THE LOW ROTATES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
TODAY WITH MORE EXPECTED TOMORROW. EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES SEEM THAT THEY COULD SEE THE MOST AS MODELS SHOW
THE 700MB DEFORMATION BAND PIVOTING OVER THE AREA. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SOME OVERLAND FLOODING IN WESTERN PEMBINA
COUNTY...SO ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ENOUGH RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CREATE OVERLAND FLOOD PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE THERE HAS NOT BEEN TIME TO SOAK IN. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY HAD HALF AN INCH OR SO. DUE TO THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY AREAL
FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. GFS HAS SOME WINDS NEAR 50 KTS AT 900MB THAT COULD MIX
DOWN AND MAKE KDVL AREA VERY GUSTY...BUT THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINK THAT
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER ON THIS MORNING
AS THE SFC LOW HEADS EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. WILL
KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW AND HAVE EXTENDED IT A BIT
INTO THIS EVENING AS IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR WINDS TO DIE OFF.

THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL IT WILL SINK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT VERY HIGH POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PRECIP BANDS AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO KEPT POPS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
THAT AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
MORE SUN AND GET A BIT WARMER. THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH RAIN ON AND OFF. HARD TO TELL JUST WHEN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL COME INTO THE TAF SITES AND TAKE CONDITIONS LOWER. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. THINK THAT THE RAIN AND 700-1500 FT
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER WINDS
AROUND KDVL OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PEMBINA RIVER AT
WALHALLA. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
PEMBINA RIVER AT NECHE IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE
FORECASTS BASED ON FUTURE PRECIP AS WELL AS PLACEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PEMBINA COUNTY...WITH SOME
REPORTS OF OVERLAND FLOODING NEAR MOUNTAIN ND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST
POINTS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AND SURROUNDING TRIBUTARIES MAY REACH
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THESE
FORECASTS...AND THE RIVER RESPONSES WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OF THE RAINFALL RUNS OFF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-054.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004.

&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 5:40 AM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
540 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

NDZ006>008-014-015-054-211045-
TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-WESTERN WALSH-
540 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL
BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
VICINITY OF RAIN SHOWERS.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST DAY HAVE VARIED QUITE A BIT...BUT IF HEAVIER
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY FALL AT THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH LOCALIZED
LOW LAND FLOODING.

THE RAIN HAS STARTED RISES ON THE PEMBINA RIVER AT WALHALLA AND AT
NECHE. WALHALLA HAS GONE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED
BEGIN FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. NECHE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RISE
TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY...SO STAY TUNED TO RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. FLOOD WATCHES
CONTINUE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER AND
WARNINGS FOR THE PEMBINA RIVER AT WALHALLA AND NECHE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ016-024-026>030-038-039-
049-052-053-211045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-
NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-
SARGENT-RICHLAND-
540 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST DAY HAVE VARIED QUITE A BIT...BUT IF HEAVIER
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY FALL AT THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH LOCALIZED
LOW LAND FLOODING.

FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. FLOOD WATCHES
CONTINUE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 8:24 PM CDTWind AdvisoryFGFKittson, Marshall, Roseau35 hr
May 19, 9:18 PM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFKittson8 days
May 19, 9:18 PM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFWalsh5 days
May 19, 9:18 PM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFCavalier, Pembina15 days
May 19, 9:18 PM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFPembina15 days
May 20, 2:14 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGFPembina12 hr
May 20, 2:34 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningFGFCavalier, Pembina3 days
May 20, 9:47 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningFGFPembina5 days
May 20, 11:42 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningFGFCavalier, Pembina, Walsh27 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in Minnesota, 2013Flood Watches in North Dakota, 2013Every flood watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.