River Flood Warning 68, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
658 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

BRIEF AFD AS SIGNIFICANT HYDRO EVENT CONTINUES UNFORTUNATELY. MUCH
OF THE DVN CWA UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
AND THE WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE BEEFED UP
SERIOUSNESS IN THE WATCH PRODUCT. MANY RIVERS RISING QUICKLY WITH
RIVER FCST ADJUSTMENTS ON THE WAY OR RECENTLY ISSUED. MANY AREAS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 UP TO 5 INCHES...WITH
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH 18Z MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MS RVR...BUT ALSO FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MO.
FORCING AND ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME SURGE MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MO WITH EYES ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY TAKING AIM AT CURRENT
PRESSURE FALLS MAX AND INVERTED SFC TROF FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD RIGHT ACRS THE DVN CWA. THIS EXTRA RAIN OF COURSE TO
AGGRAVATE/COMPOUND UPON ONGOING SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATIONS. ONE
POSITIVE IS SVR STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BORDER LIMITS AS SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FROM EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EAST THOUGH
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY FOR STRONG STORMS. DRY SLOT TO FINALLY
BRING ABOUT END TO THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAY
BE TOTALLY PRECIP FREE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. WRAP AROUND DEF
ZONE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONSIST OF
RAIN AND SNOW GOING TO ALL LIGHT WET SNOW NORTH OF HWY 30 BEFORE
SUNRISE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED BEFORE 12Z FRI AM. TEMPS
SECONDARY TODAY AND MAY BE TOO WARM ACRS THE EAST HALF...STEADY OR
FALLING TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

QUICK ASSESSMENT OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...DEF ZONE RAIN/SNOW
FRI AM TO BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERY AND PUSH EAST FRI
AFTERNOON. MAY BE ALL SNOW NORTH OF I80 FOR A WHILE EARLY FRI
MORNING WITH A WET DUSTING TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
ELEVATED SFC/S. IT WILL MELT AWAY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE FRI
MORNING. COOL DAY FOR THE FLOOD FIGHTERS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30+ MPH. CLEAR OUT
AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES COULD LEAD TO NEAR
RECORD COLD TEMPS FOR APRIL 20TH/SAT MORNING...MID TO UPPER 20S.
HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

FAIR AND DRY SAT...FLATTENING FLOW TO BRING AN EMBEDDED WAVE AND
POSSIBLE RAIN BY LAT SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATING TEMPS AS WELL
MAYBE TO NEAR NORMAL. STRONGER WAVE-L/W TROF TO BE MORE OF
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MAKER POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUE/TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

IFR CONDITIONS AND LMVFR CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS BY
18/16Z FROM WARP AROUND CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. NEXT FEW
HOURS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNTIL FRONT PASSES WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED AS LOW AS 2-4 MILES. LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN FLURRIES
TONIGHT POSSIBLE WITH LARGE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. CLOUD CEILINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 500 TO 1500 FEET AGL
AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES. NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 12 TO 20+ KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

NICHOLS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

AVIATION...NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
455 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ADDITIONAL .5 INCHES IN THE WEST AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
EAST ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS REGARDING
FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL FLOOD ISSUES.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

MANY AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING UP TO MAJOR FLOODING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DO TO MILD GROUND
TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY
FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER...AS WELL AS ANY FLASH FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS/12

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