River Flood Warning 67, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

BRIEF AFD AS SIGNIFICANT HYDRO EVENT CONTINUES UNFORTUNATELY. MUCH
OF THE DVN CWA UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
AND THE WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE BEEFED UP
SERIOUSNESS IN THE WATCH PRODUCT. MANY RIVERS RISING QUICKLY WITH
RIVER FCST ADJUSTMENTS ON THE WAY OR RECENTLY ISSUED. MANY AREAS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 UP TO 5 INCHES...WITH
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH 18Z MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MS RVR...BUT ALSO FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MO.
FORCING AND ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME SURGE MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MO WITH EYES ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY TAKING AIM AT CURRENT
PRESSURE FALLS MAX AND INVERTED SFC TROF FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD RIGHT ACRS THE DVN CWA. THIS EXTRA RAIN OF COURSE TO
AGGRAVATE/COMPOUND UPON ONGOING SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATIONS. ONE
POSITIVE IS SVR STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BORDER LIMITS AS SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FROM EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EAST THOUGH
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY FOR STRONG STORMS. DRY SLOT TO FINALLY
BRING ABOUT END TO THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAY
BE TOTALLY PRECIP FREE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. WRAP AROUND DEF
ZONE TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONSIST OF
RAIN AND SNOW GOING TO ALL LIGHT WET SNOW NORTH OF HWY 30 BEFORE
SUNRISE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED BEFORE 12Z FRI AM. TEMPS
SECONDARY TODAY AND MAY BE TOO WARM ACRS THE EAST HALF...STEADY OR
FALLING TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

QUICK ASSESSMENT OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...DEF ZONE RAIN/SNOW
FRI AM TO BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERY AND PUSH EAST FRI
AFTERNOON. MAY BE ALL SNOW NORTH OF I80 FOR A WHILE EARLY FRI
MORNING WITH A WET DUSTING TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
ELEVATED SFC/S. IT WILL MELT AWAY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE FRI
MORNING. COOL DAY FOR THE FLOOD FIGHTERS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30+ MPH. CLEAR OUT
AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES COULD LEAD TO NEAR
RECORD COLD TEMPS FOR APRIL 20TH/SAT MORNING...MID TO UPPER 20S.
HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

FAIR AND DRY SAT...FLATTENING FLOW TO BRING AN EMBEDDED WAVE AND
POSSIBLE RAIN BY LAT SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATING TEMPS AS WELL
MAYBE TO NEAR NORMAL. STRONGER WAVE-L/W TROF TO BE MORE OF
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MAKER POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUE/TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN POPPING UP INTO MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO MOVE BACK IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDER TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...BUT CIGS
TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.    ..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1016 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181530-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1016 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY
WITH 5 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS UP
TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND WILL AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING
SITUATIONS...AND CREATE NEW FLOODING. SEVERAL RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD
AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS
FURTHER. FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH AND ANY FLASH FLOODING REPORTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

HAASE

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