Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Quad Cities, IA

009 
WGUS73 KDVN 180850 RRA
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

IAC055-061-097-105-113-ILC015-085-180900-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130418T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINN IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-DELAWARE IA-JONES IA-JO DAVIESS IL-
CARROLL IL-
350 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...JO DAVIESS...JONES...EASTERN DELAWARE...DUBUQUE...JACKSON
AND NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTIES...

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD 
WARNING.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE FLOODING...BUT STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING 
IS NOT EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE 
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4265 9072 4251 9063 4250 8994 4219 8993
      4203 9016 4203 9097 4198 9160 4232 9138
      4237 9126 4265 9114 4265 9091 4268 9088

$$

LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

WHAT A STORM SYSTEM! TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO NW IL WITH REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING AND WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY AT LEAST 2 TO 3
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS RAPIDLY TURNING INTO A SERIOUS
FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD SITUATION IN SOME AREAS. EVEN HAD A WAKE LOW
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN OUR NW CWA BEHIND THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MO AND PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE FRONT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING. SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80. NORTH OF THE FRONT ONLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THEN MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE WITH TRAINING OF STORMS IN SOME AREAS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OVER 1.50 INCHES WILL ENSURE TORRENTIAL RAINS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY IN MANY AREAS (NOT
INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN) AND THIS WILL CAUSE SERIOUS
FLASH FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. SURFACE WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
SHOULD PULL THE WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE RISE. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN STRONGER STORMS AND A
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT IN OUR SE CWA
THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS MAIN DEEP
TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW
THEN BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR MILWAUKEE BY EVENING.
TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN REGARDS TO
WHEN A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA
KEEPING THE MAIN OUTBREAK TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS
IS A BIT SLOWER AND THEREFORE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY GET IN ON
THE START OF THE OUTBREAK. HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED
WELL TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT SWEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFF TO
OUR EAST. DEFORMATION ZONE TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY.
WILL BE A CHILLY AND WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT ON MONDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE 60S. GFS STILL SHOWS SEVERAL RAINY DAYS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS RAIN MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE STORM SYSTEM ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN POPPING UP INTO MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO MOVE BACK IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDER TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...BUT CIGS
TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
..LE..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD/FLOODING SITUATION UNFOLDING AS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY HAS
FALLEN. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN
TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. MANY RIVERS WILL BE GOING INTO
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD...INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

UPDATE...LE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...LE
HYDROLOGY...HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1016 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181530-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1016 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY
WITH 5 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS UP
TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS VERY
SATURATED GROUND AND WILL AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING
SITUATIONS...AND CREATE NEW FLOODING. SEVERAL RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD
AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS
FURTHER. FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH AND ANY FLASH FLOODING REPORTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED.

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE CEDAR RAPIDS      41.95N 91.66W
04/18/2013  M3.00 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

OLSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NNW SPRINGVILLE         42.06N 91.45W
04/18/2013  M3.20 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES. 24 HOUR EVENT TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N DAVENPORT           41.64N 90.60W
04/18/2013  M2.27 INCH       SCOTT              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24HR TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

OLSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1258 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PRINCETON               41.38N 89.47W
04/18/2013  E2.10 INCH       BUREAU             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
109 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LOWDEN                  41.86N 90.92W
04/18/2013  M4.73 INCH       CEDAR              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
112 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LOWDEN                  41.86N 90.92W
04/18/2013                   CEDAR              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LARGE
            PONDINGOFWATEREVERYWHERE. THREE QUARTERS OF YARD IS
            UNDERWATER. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES.

&&

BILLN