Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS La Crosse, WI

417 
WWUS53 KARX 292243
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAC005-043-292315-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-130529T2315Z/
ALLAMAKEE IA-CLAYTON IA-
543 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CLAYTON AND
SOUTHERN ALLAMAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF HARPERS FERRY TO GARNAVILLO TO
GREELEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MCGREGOR AND MARQUETTE AROUND 550 PM CDT.
  GUTTENBERG AROUND 555 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE COUNTY ROADS X 47 AND C 7 X...
UPDEGRAFF...FAIRVIEW...EFFIGY MOUNDS...PIKES PEAK STATE PARK...J WOOD
CAMPGROUND...WAUKON JCT...CLAYTON...OSTERDOCK AND LOCK AND DAM 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9161 4318 9160 4317 9115 4314 9115
      4313 9118 4304 9118 4297 9115 4291 9115
      4287 9110 4275 9106 4268 9095 4268 9090
      4265 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 246DEG 42KT 4320 9127 4288 9123
          4259 9135

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SCHMIDT

446 
WWUS53 KARX 292256
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
556 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAC005-043-292306-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-130529T2315Z/
ALLAMAKEE IA-CLAYTON IA-
556 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLAYTON AND SOUTHERN ALLAMAKEE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4264 9161 4318 9160 4317 9115 4314 9115
      4313 9118 4304 9118 4297 9115 4291 9115
      4287 9110 4275 9106 4268 9095 4268 9090
      4265 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 246DEG 42KT 4326 9109 4294 9105
          4265 9118

$$

SCHMIDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
HOUSTON...ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES. PRESENT CONVECTION
TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER
0-6KM SHEAR THERE. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE EXPANSION
AREA...EXPECTING THE RAIN TO PRIME CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...EITHER FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION OR FROM ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALSO STARTED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION AND THE NEED FOR
WARNINGS SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS IN TURN WAS DRIVING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CO
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
CONVECTION/SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WAS FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS WARM
FRONT ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING 925-85OMB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/INCREASING CAPE POOL. DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 ACROSS EASTERN
IA.

LOOK FOR ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT/NOSE OF RATHER INTENSE MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. RAP SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 3000-3500J/KG WITH
INCREASING 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8
PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CAPE/BULK SHEAR AND
ENHANCED 0-1KM EHI VALUES WOULD FAVOR TORNADOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/TORNADIC POTENTIAL GOING INTO
EVENING. CAPE STARTS DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FETCH OF STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.7IN RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY TO COVER THIS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LAGGING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KS. SO...EXPECTING HEAVIER
RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TAILORED SHRA/TS CHANCES WITH LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING TO 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...WITH A WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT/BECOME
SCATTERED WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF IMPROVED VFR
CONDITIONS THRU MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

MAIN FORCING/LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/TIMING IN THE SUMMERY AIRMASS OVER-
SPREADING THE AREA REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AFTER THE 20-23Z TIME-FRAME
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU. APPEARS ONE ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 20-03Z TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THIS ROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING. GIVEN A WIDE
VARIETY OF SMALL SCALE TRIGGERS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE
LOWER LATER TONIGHT/THU. OPTED NOT TO SPREAD EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF
TSRA/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN MDT CONFIDENCE AT BEST. WILL JUST
HAVE TO PLAN ON SOME AMD/UPDATES ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST IA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THU.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD...OR POSSIBLY EVEN EASTWARD
INTO WI...AS DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MNZ094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS/AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-086>088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-
061-301101-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-GRANT-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ094-095-301101-
CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-WINNESHIEK-
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND
9 PM. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK/RRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
453 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PROTIVIN                43.22N 92.09W
05/29/2013                   HOWARD             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SAND BAG OPERATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT AGAINST BOHEMIAN
            CREEK.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
454 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLACK RIVER FALLS       44.30N 90.85W
05/29/2013  M45 MPH          JACKSON            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
455 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ010-011-019-029-030-MNZ088-096-WIZ017-029-033-034-041-042-053-
054-292300-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
LA CROSSE-MONROE-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
455 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AT 455 PM A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE STORMS
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH. BY 6 PM THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LINE WILL BE APPROACHING MEDFORD...SPARTA AND VIROQUA
WISCONSIN TO STRAWBERRY POINT IOWA. THE STRONGER OF THE STORMS LOOK
TO PASS NEAR AND NORTH OF NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN AND ACROSS THE WEST
UNION TO OELWEIN IOWA AREAS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SOME HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

RRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
459 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERRILLAN               44.45N 90.84W
05/29/2013  E40 MPH          JACKSON            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG WITH HAIL

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             MERRILLAN               44.45N 90.84W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
514 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GREENWOOD           44.77N 90.66W
05/29/2013  E35 MPH          CLARK              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA