Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
HOUSTON...ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES. PRESENT CONVECTION
TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER
0-6KM SHEAR THERE. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE EXPANSION
AREA...EXPECTING THE RAIN TO PRIME CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...EITHER FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION OR FROM ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALSO STARTED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION AND THE NEED FOR
WARNINGS SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS IN TURN WAS DRIVING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CO
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
CONVECTION/SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WAS FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS WARM
FRONT ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING 925-85OMB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/INCREASING CAPE POOL. DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 ACROSS EASTERN
IA.

LOOK FOR ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT/NOSE OF RATHER INTENSE MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. RAP SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 3000-3500J/KG WITH
INCREASING 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8
PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CAPE/BULK SHEAR AND
ENHANCED 0-1KM EHI VALUES WOULD FAVOR TORNADOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/TORNADIC POTENTIAL GOING INTO
EVENING. CAPE STARTS DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FETCH OF STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.7IN RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY TO COVER THIS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LAGGING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KS. SO...EXPECTING HEAVIER
RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TAILORED SHRA/TS CHANCES WITH LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING TO 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...WITH A WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT/BECOME
SCATTERED WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF IMPROVED VFR
CONDITIONS THRU MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

MAIN FORCING/LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/TIMING IN THE SUMMERY AIRMASS OVER-
SPREADING THE AREA REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AFTER THE 20-23Z TIME-FRAME
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU. APPEARS ONE ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 20-03Z TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THIS ROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING. GIVEN A WIDE
VARIETY OF SMALL SCALE TRIGGERS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE
LOWER LATER TONIGHT/THU. OPTED NOT TO SPREAD EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF
TSRA/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN MDT CONFIDENCE AT BEST. WILL JUST
HAVE TO PLAN ON SOME AMD/UPDATES ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST IA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THU.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD...OR POSSIBLY EVEN EASTWARD
INTO WI...AS DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MNZ094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS/AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-086>088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-
061-301101-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-GRANT-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ094-095-301101-
CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-WINNESHIEK-
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND
9 PM. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK/RRS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECORAH                 43.31N 91.79W
05/29/2013  M1.48 INCH       WINNESHIEK         IA   AWOS

&&

MM/ZT