Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS La Crosse, WI

883 
WGUS73 KARX 300043
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
743 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAC005-191-MNC055-WIC063-123-300530-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130530T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLAMAKEE IA-WINNESHIEK IA-HOUSTON MN-LA CROSSE WI-VERNON WI-
743 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN VERNON...EASTERN
LA CROSSE...SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...EASTERN WINNESHIEK AND
NORTHWESTERN ALLAMAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 740 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY 
FALLEN...AND ANOTHER HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 10 PM.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A MUD SLIDE ALONG HIGHWAY 162 
NEAR COUNTY ROAD JB NEAR MIDDLE RIDGE IN LA CROSSE COUNTY WISCONSIN. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY STILL RESULT IN FLASH 
FLOODING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
WAUKON...BROWNSVILLE...COON VALLEY...NEW ALBIN...AND OSSIAN.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4308 9188 4350 9161 4350 9146 4407 9099
      4407 9091 4373 9091 4342 9120 4308 9161

$$

MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
HOUSTON...ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES. PRESENT CONVECTION
TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER
0-6KM SHEAR THERE. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE EXPANSION
AREA...EXPECTING THE RAIN TO PRIME CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...EITHER FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION OR FROM ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALSO STARTED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION AND THE NEED FOR
WARNINGS SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS IN TURN WAS DRIVING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CO
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
CONVECTION/SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WAS FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS WARM
FRONT ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING 925-85OMB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/INCREASING CAPE POOL. DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 ACROSS EASTERN
IA.

LOOK FOR ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT/NOSE OF RATHER INTENSE MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. RAP SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 3000-3500J/KG WITH
INCREASING 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8
PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CAPE/BULK SHEAR AND
ENHANCED 0-1KM EHI VALUES WOULD FAVOR TORNADOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/TORNADIC POTENTIAL GOING INTO
EVENING. CAPE STARTS DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FETCH OF STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.7IN RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY TO COVER THIS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LAGGING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KS. SO...EXPECTING HEAVIER
RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TAILORED SHRA/TS CHANCES WITH LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING TO 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...WITH A WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI.
CLOUDS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT/BECOME
SCATTERED WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF IMPROVED VFR
CONDITIONS THRU MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

MAIN FORCING/LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/TIMING IN THE SUMMERY AIRMASS OVER-
SPREADING THE AREA REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AFTER THE 20-23Z TIME-FRAME
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU. APPEARS ONE ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 20-03Z TIME PERIOD LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THIS ROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING. GIVEN A WIDE
VARIETY OF SMALL SCALE TRIGGERS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE
LOWER LATER TONIGHT/THU. OPTED NOT TO SPREAD EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF
TSRA/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN MDT CONFIDENCE AT BEST. WILL JUST
HAVE TO PLAN ON SOME AMD/UPDATES ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST IA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THU.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD...OR POSSIBLY EVEN EASTWARD
INTO WI...AS DETAILS OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MNZ094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS/AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-086>088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-
061-301101-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-GRANT-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ094-095-301101-
CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-WINNESHIEK-
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND
9 PM. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK/RRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
526 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW FORT ATKINSON      43.13N 91.95W
05/29/2013                   WINNESHIEK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER HALF WAY OVER HIGHWAY 24 NEAR TOWN

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MONDOVI                 44.57N 91.67W
05/29/2013  M1.07 INCH       BUFFALO            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MM/ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
532 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DECORAH                 43.31N 91.79W
05/29/2013                   WINNESHIEK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

MM/ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
537 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             WEST SALEM              43.90N 91.08W
05/29/2013  M0.25 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PEA SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

MM/ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
538 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DECORAH                 43.31N 91.79W
05/29/2013                   WINNESHIEK         IA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING. HIGHWAYS B32 AND 24 HAVE
            WATER OVER THEM.

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
539 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WAUCOMA                 43.06N 92.03W
05/29/2013  M1.59 INCH       FAYETTE            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MM/ZT