Gale Warning 106, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1204 PM AKST MON NOV 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING THE DETAILS BETTER SO WILL LEAN ON IT FOR THE FIRST 72
HOURS. THEN WORK A BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER AS BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS ARE SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED 504 DAM COLD CORE LOW OVER BETTLES
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO FILL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A 530 DAM HIGH CENTER NEAR
70N 180 WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER POINT HOPE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE
ROTATING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED INTO IT AS
IT ROTATES OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
STATIONARY AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 506 DAM BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...TEMPERATURES 17 TO 30 BELOW CELSIUS WITH THE COLDEST POOLED
UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT. SOME OF THAT
POOL WILL WORK SOUTH SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS TO GO
FROM AROUND 20 BELOW TO AROUND 25 BELOW CELSIUS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL POOL IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 30 BELOW
CELSIUS.

SURFACE...WEAK INDUCED TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WILL FINALLY BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR. LOOK FOR CLEARING AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE YUKON EAST. A 1016MB LOW OVER
MACKENZIE BAY WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT BUT A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL ENHANCE THE LOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. A 1026MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SOME INDUCED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW DEEPENING TO 1022MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
994MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY MORNING A TRANSITION
WILL BEGIN THAT WILL PUSH THE RIDGE INTO CANADA AS THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH A MODERATE
CHINOOK SETTING UP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...BLIZZARD WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR DEADHORSE
EAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST OR
CLEAR INLAND. SIGNIFICANT COLD INLAND AS COLD AIR GETS POOLED IN
THE THE BROOKS RANGE AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 45 BELOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR ARCTIC PLAIN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TYPE SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST...INLAND LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE TUESDAY. LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING TONIGHT BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
WILL NOT SHOW UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO 20 TO 35 BELOW FOR MANY AREAS...ALONG THE COAST AREAS
WILL NOT GET REALLY COLD UNTIL THEY GET OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL
BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED...SO ONLY EXPECT ONE DAY WITH LOWS DIPPING
TO AROUND 10 BELOW. A WARM UP LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE AREA.

INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR CLEARING AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOW 20 TO
40 BELOW. THE COLDEST AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR. WARM UP LATE IN THE WEEK AS CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP 40 TO 50 DEGREES AS THE
SOUTH FLOW BRINGS WARM AIR NORTH. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WITH THIS FLOW SO LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE
THIS WEEK IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SDB NOV 13