Brisk Wind Advisory 210, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT... THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL RETROGRADE
OVER THE STATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES
MOVE SOUTH OVER ALASKA. THIS IS BRINGING COLD NORTHERLY FLOW TO
ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK.

A THE FIRST STRONG LOW ALOFT 100 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO
UMIAT BY 3AM MON...TO BETTLES BY 3PM MON...TO NENANA BY 3AM TUE
AND TO GLENNALLEN BY 3PM TUE. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW AND NW WINDS GUSTING 25 KT FROM THIS LOW WEST ALONG THE
COASTS...AND 1 INCH AND NW GUSTING 20 KT FROM THE LOW WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SURFACE... A 1016 MB 100 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO
NEAR ARCTIC VILLAGE AS A 1018 MB LOW BY 3AM MON AND TO NEAR OLD
CROW AS A 1020 MB LOW BY 3PM MON. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OLD CROW TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY 3AM MON...TO EAGLE TO GAMBELL BY 3PM MON AND
TO CHICKEN TO DENALI TO GAMBELL BY 3AM TUE. WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
COAST BUT JUST AN INCH OR SO IN THE INTERIOR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ARE NOW -18C TO -20C ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INLAND AREAS.

A SECOND LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
BEAUFORT SEA MON NIGHT AND TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF DEMARCATION POINT
AS A 1011 MB LOW BY 3PM TUE. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE MON
NIGHT AND TUE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW...STRONG WEST WINDS
AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW AS A 1013
MB LOW WHICH IS SEVERAL MB DEEPER AND FURTHER SW THAN ANY OF THE
MODELS WERE SHOWING IT. WE WILL TRACK SURFACE LOW SOUTH JUST AHEAD
OF THE 500 MB LOW.

NAM INITIALIZES BETTER AT 500 MN OVER INTERIOR. MODELS SHOW SAME
GENERAL PATTERN BUT NAM A BIT FASTER WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
LOW ACROSS ALASKA THROUGH TUE. NAM ALSO IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
WITH A SECOND LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS BEAUFORT SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUE. PREFER NAM SOLUTION ON THESE FEATURES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MODERATE SURF THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR SHISHMAREF AND DEERING.
OTHERWISE NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB NOV 13