Storm Warning 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

491 
FZAK52 PAFC 211636 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 962 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 970 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 80 NM NORTH OF ATKA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN 
TO 987 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 55 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...INCREASING TO 35 KT W OF CHIRIKOF 
ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT W CHIRIKOF ISLAND 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON 
W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT W OF 160W IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...INCREASING TO 40 KT W OF 160W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
W OF 160W. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
W OF PORT MOLLER. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT...BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF 
PORT MOLLER. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT 
W OF PORT MOLLER. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DIMINISHING
TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-220300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT 
S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT...BECOMING S 25 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BERING SIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN. W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 8 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 12 FT 
BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
W OF AMCHITKA PASS...BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 12 FT 
BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
FROM SHEMYA W...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT 
FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-220300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON S OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 20 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE COMPLEX TODAY AS THE RIDGE HAS RECEDED INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THERE IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
AND THEN A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST.
A STRONG JET STREAM IS RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND IS
PERFECTLY POSITIONED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AN EXTRA TROPICAL SURFACE
LOW THAT IS APPROACHING THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW WILL REACH THE
LOWER 960S MB RANGE AND WOULD BE CONSIDERED A STRONG LOW EVEN IN THE
WINTER.
A WEAKENING FRONT IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WHICH HAS ALSO TURNED THE FLOW SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS WELL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE SETTLING DOWN AND SEEM TO HAVE
COME TOGETHER NICELY ON THE TRACK OF THE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW IN THE
ALEUTIANS. ONE TREND THEY ALL HAVE SHOWN OVER THE PAST DAY IS THAT
THE LOW WILL BE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THEY HAD BEEN
DEPICTING. THIS CHANGE MAKE A LOT OF SENSE DUE TO THE LOWS ORIGIN AND
THE EXTRA CHALLENGES THE MODELS ENCOUNTER WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE FORECASTS IN THAT IT WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA FARTHER NORTH...BRINGING IN STORM FORCE
WINDS INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN MARINE ZONES WHICH IS NOT VERY COMMON
IN JUNE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CONVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE NORTHERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA UNTIL THE
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALEUTIAN STORM MOVES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AN INCREASES THE WINDS AS WELL AS
THE CHANCES OF RAIN.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION AS THE
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHEN IT PUSHES
INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AND REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT WILL
LIKELY ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE REST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOWHERE AS WARM AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 170 172 175 179 180 185.
         STORM 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 13