Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

473 
WWAK61 PAFC 221416
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
616 AM AKDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AKZ141-230600-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130624T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.FW.W.0012.130622T2200Z-130623T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
616 AM AKDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE COPPER RIVER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

* 20 FT WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 19 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SHOULD DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES
  RECOVER BY LATE EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 130 KT+ SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSING
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC HAS LED TO RAPID DEEPENING OF A LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE AROUND
960 MB...QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW HAS
STALLED ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE THE JET CONTINUE OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THE FEW SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH
THIS PROCESS IS HAPPENING VERY SLOWLY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
AND THE WESTERN GULF...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE BIGGER IMPACT
IS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND TO AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN CLEAR.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
HAS PUSHED ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND PORTIONS OF COOK INLET. DO EXPECT THIS TO TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIKELY MOVING BACK ONSHORE
TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INDICATE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SOLUTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRIMARILY WITH THE TRACK OF THE ALEUTIAN
LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE BERING TO PACIFIC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM. ONE OF THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MARINE
LAYER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS TOWARD A COOLER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN AS THE BERING TROUGH
CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY PLACE WITH A SHOT OF AIR MASS
CONVECTION IS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PENETRATE AND WHERE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REMAIN HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE ALONG WITH THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
TODAY. INLAND AREAS CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE BERING FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BRINGING A
COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE FLOW AND HEALTHY SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THIS HIGH WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE GULF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER SEA BREEZES AND LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE LAYER PUSHING ON SHORE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TODAY WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BERING SEA FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. IT WILL TRY TO PUSH INLAND SATURDAY...BUT WON'T MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS AS THE FRONT REALLY STARTS TO STALL AND STRETCH APART.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER HOWEVER TO MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS FROM THE BERING TO PACIFIC ON
SUNDAY THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH LEADING TO A BIT MORE
SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL
ACCELERATE THROUGH GAPS OF THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE REACHING 55 TO 65 MPH
IN SOME SPOTS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM TRACKS EASTWARD AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC. A BENIGN SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL SET BACK UP
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE ONE WHICH BROUGHT HOT TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MUCH FURTHER EAST NEAR THE
ALASKA/CANADA BORDER WHICH MEANS THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO EAST INSTEAD OF THE NORTH. ALSO...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL DEFINITELY WARM BUT THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ANYWHERE NEAR THE HIGHS OF LAST WEEK.
WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT MORE MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS)
UNDER THIS FLOW AND A CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF ASIA LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180
185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 13