Gale Warning 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

352 
FZAK52 PAFC 212349
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 MB LOW NEAR 52N 179E WILL MOVE TO 54N 170W AT 978 MB SAT
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 54N 160W AT 995 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE...W 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 12
FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 130 KT+ SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSING
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC HAS LED TO RAPID DEEPENING OF A LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE AROUND
960 MB...QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW HAS
STALLED ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE THE JET CONTINUE OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THE FEW SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH
THIS PROCESS IS HAPPENING VERY SLOWLY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
AND THE WESTERN GULF...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE BIGGER IMPACT
IS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND TO AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN CLEAR.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
HAS PUSHED ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...AND PORTIONS OF COOK INLET. DO EXPECT THIS TO TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIKELY MOVING BACK ONSHORE
TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INDICATE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SOLUTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRIMARILY WITH THE TRACK OF THE ALEUTIAN
LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE BERING TO PACIFIC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM. ONE OF THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MARINE
LAYER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS TOWARD A COOLER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN AS THE BERING TROUGH
CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY PLACE WITH A SHOT OF AIR MASS
CONVECTION IS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PENETRATE AND WHERE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REMAIN HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE ALONG WITH THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
TODAY. INLAND AREAS CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE BERING FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BRINGING A
COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE FLOW AND HEALTHY SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THIS HIGH WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE GULF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER SEA BREEZES AND LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE LAYER PUSHING ON SHORE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TODAY WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BERING SEA FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. IT WILL TRY TO PUSH INLAND SATURDAY...BUT WON'T MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS AS THE FRONT REALLY STARTS TO STALL AND STRETCH APART.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER HOWEVER TO MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS FROM THE BERING TO PACIFIC ON
SUNDAY THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH LEADING TO A BIT MORE
SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL
ACCELERATE THROUGH GAPS OF THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE REACHING 55 TO 65 MPH
IN SOME SPOTS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM TRACKS EASTWARD AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC. A BENIGN SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL SET BACK UP
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE ONE WHICH BROUGHT HOT TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MUCH FURTHER EAST NEAR THE
ALASKA/CANADA BORDER WHICH MEANS THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO EAST INSTEAD OF THE NORTH. ALSO...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL DEFINITELY WARM BUT THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ANYWHERE NEAR THE HIGHS OF LAST WEEK.
WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT MORE MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS)
UNDER THIS FLOW AND A CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF ASIA LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180
185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 13