Storm Warning 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

891 
FZAK52 PAFC 290001
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ST PAUL TUE AFTERNOON AT 978 MB THEN MOVE TO 200 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL AT 985 MB WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-291500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. BLOWING
SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-291500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF COLD BAY. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-291500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT W OF UNALASKA. SEAS 9 FT BERING
SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-291500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-291500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-291500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SINK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS THROUGH FAVORED GAPS IN
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 170W
TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WITH THE EC
AND GFS BRINGING A SUB 975 MB SURFACE LOW TO THE VICINITY OF DUTCH
HARBOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE BERING...THEREFORE THE EC
WAS MORE HEAVILY UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE BERING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
THE LOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED GAP WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
COLD ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERIOR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR KODIAK ISLAND AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES TO KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR
VISIBILITIES INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MONDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO THE BLIZZARD THREAT.
SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THE AKPEN THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES
AND WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND RAIN BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. SNOW WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO
THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 BELOW ZERO
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE PRIBILOFS
MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN
BERING. ELSEWHERE...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CHAIN WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDWEEK
AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EXTENDED TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 185
         BLIZZARD WATCH 161 171 195
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 141 145 155 161
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 127 128 130 132 136 137 138 140 150 155
                        160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120 121 125 126 127 128 129 130 136
                                137 138 140 141 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB JAN 13