Gale Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

282 
FZAK52 PAFC 281203
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE MORNING AT THE SAME STRENGTH...THEN MOVE TO 90 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 978 MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT...BECOMING SE 30 KT S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW...MIXING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT NEAR MORNING. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE
WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT NEAR MORNING. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SINK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS THROUGH FAVORED GAPS IN
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 170W
TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WITH THE EC
AND GFS BRINGING A SUB 975 MB SURFACE LOW TO THE VICINITY OF DUTCH
HARBOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE BERING...THEREFORE THE EC
WAS MORE HEAVILY UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE BERING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
THE LOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED GAP WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
COLD ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERIOR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR KODIAK ISLAND AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES TO KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR
VISIBILITIES INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MONDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO THE BLIZZARD THREAT.
SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THE AKPEN THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES
AND WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND RAIN BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. SNOW WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO
THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 BELOW ZERO
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE PRIBILOFS
MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN
BERING. ELSEWHERE...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CHAIN WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDWEEK
AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EXTENDED TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 185
         BLIZZARD WATCH 161 171 195
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 141 145 155 161
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 127 128 130 132 136 137 138 140 150 155
                        160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120 121 125 126 127 128 129 130 136
                                137 138 140 141 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB JAN 13