Gale Warning 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

016 
FZAK51 PAFC 290001
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST MON NIGHT AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
WED MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-291500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-291500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-291500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 
FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND 
RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-291500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-291500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. 
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SINK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS THROUGH FAVORED GAPS IN
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...A VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 170W
TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WITH THE EC
AND GFS BRINGING A SUB 975 MB SURFACE LOW TO THE VICINITY OF DUTCH
HARBOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE BERING...THEREFORE THE EC
WAS MORE HEAVILY UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE BERING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
THE LOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED GAP WINDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
COLD ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERIOR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR KODIAK ISLAND AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES TO KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR
VISIBILITIES INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MONDAY NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO THE BLIZZARD THREAT.
SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THE AKPEN THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES
AND WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND RAIN BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. SNOW WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO
THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 BELOW ZERO
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE PRIBILOFS
MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN
BERING. ELSEWHERE...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CHAIN WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDWEEK
AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EXTENDED TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 185
         BLIZZARD WATCH 161 171 195
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 141 145 155 161
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 127 128 130 132 136 137 138 140 150 155
                        160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120 121 125 126 127 128 129 130 136
                                137 138 140 141 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB JAN 13