Storm Warning 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2013, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 31, 2013, 7:00 PM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

520 
FZAK52 PAFC 311203
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1008 MB LOW 60 NM S OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE BERING THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS INLAND BY FRI AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW 305 NM SW
OF ADAK FRI MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 70 NM SW
OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.FRI...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 20 KT
BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20
KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-010300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-010300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-010300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...BERING SIDE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-010300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE WIND 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM SHEMYA W...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FROM SHEMYA W...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-010300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FROM
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 30, 5:00 PM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH IS PART OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A LOW IS
SPINNING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE AND 155 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAS VERIFIED BETTER WITH
THE KODIAK LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WITH THE NAM FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF WITH THIS LOW...TENDED TOWARD THE NAM FOR ITS BETTER
DEPICTION OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS. OUT WEST WITH THE NEXT LOW THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...AND JUST DIFFER A LITTLE WITH
THE TIMING/LOCATION. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE KODIAK LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WINDS AND RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW FURTHER OCCLUDES AND BEGINS TO FILL. INLAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FROM THE EAST CREATES A
DOWN-SLOPE RAIN SHADOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
(PWS) ON THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN FILL THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHEN THE LOW REACHES PWS THE DOWN-SLOPE WILL END AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEST OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BE
PUSHED EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A BERING SEA UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TROUGH AREA FROM THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...EXCEPT THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FOR A BRIEF DRY SPELL.
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA (INCLUDING THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA) LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 176.
         GALE WARNING 119 130 131 132 139 150 175 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 13

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2013Every storm warning in 2013

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.