Storm Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

520 
FZAK52 PAFC 311203
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1008 MB LOW 60 NM S OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE BERING THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS INLAND BY FRI AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW 305 NM SW
OF ADAK FRI MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 70 NM SW
OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.FRI...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 20 KT
BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20
KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-010300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-010300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-010300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...BERING SIDE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-010300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE WIND 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM SHEMYA W...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FROM SHEMYA W...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-010300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FROM
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE AREA THIS
MORNING IS THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIGHT OVER TOP OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS RIDING ALONG THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KT JET THAT IS POINTED FROM SW TO NE RIGHT AT
SANDSPIT B.C. IT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE JET LATER TODAY AND START TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ON THE BERING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. ONE MORE WEAK LOW IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING. THE 00Z NAM WAS ABOUT 100 MI TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW AND TOO WEAK. THE 06Z RUN CORRECTED THESE
ISSUES AND IT WAS USED IN PART FOR ITS RESOLUTION ALONG WITH THE MORE
STABLE ECMWF IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE TIGHT MODEL CLUSTER LEADS
TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS OR SO.

BEYOND THAT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AK RANGE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE EC IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LEFTOVER
DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF...THIS TROUGH COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PULL SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS WILL LINE UP IN THE QUEUE
OVER THE BERING AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MAINLAND WITH ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN
WET AND WINDY WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE LOW WILL START
TO FILL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SO GRADIENTS SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.
AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE PAST
FEW SYSTEMS.

THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER WEAK FLOW WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION BESIDES A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY
EVENING FOR THOSE WITH HALLOWEEN INTERESTS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THINGS WILL REMAIN QUITE WET FOR MUCH OF THE AREAS
INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WRAPS MOISTURE
AROUND. AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST TODAY...A DRYING TREND SHOULD SLOWLY
BEGIN. SOME DECENT PRESSURE RISES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A BRIEF BUT
POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A WELCOME BREAK IN THE WET AND
WINDY WEATHER ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW. THE
NEXT SYSTEM...ANOTHER TYPHOON REMNANT...WILL BRING MORE GALES AND
RAIN IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE ALEUTIANS AND PARK ITSELF IN THE CENTER OF THE BERING BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT
ADVERTISING ANY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OCCASIONAL WET AND WINDY SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE IS SOME HINT...ALBEIT SMALL...OF A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME COLDER... MORE SEASONAL AIR
CREEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD SEND OUR TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARDS NORMAL. BUT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT COULD ALSO
BRING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE STATE AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 125 130 131 132 138 139 150 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MSO OCT 13