Storm Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2013, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 31, 2013, 7:00 PM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

034 
FZAK62 PAFC 311156
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW AT 51N 174W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE BERING THIS AFTERNOON
THEN TRACKS INLAND BY FRI AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW NEAR 48N 178E
FRI MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 56N 171W BY SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO
10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 30, 5:00 PM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED OCT 30 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH IS PART OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A LOW IS
SPINNING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE AND 155 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND HAS VERIFIED BETTER WITH
THE KODIAK LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WITH THE NAM FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF WITH THIS LOW...TENDED TOWARD THE NAM FOR ITS BETTER
DEPICTION OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS. OUT WEST WITH THE NEXT LOW THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE MAIN FEATURES...AND JUST DIFFER A LITTLE WITH
THE TIMING/LOCATION. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE KODIAK LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WINDS AND RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW FURTHER OCCLUDES AND BEGINS TO FILL. INLAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FROM THE EAST CREATES A
DOWN-SLOPE RAIN SHADOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
(PWS) ON THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN FILL THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHEN THE LOW REACHES PWS THE DOWN-SLOPE WILL END AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEST OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BE
PUSHED EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A BERING SEA UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TROUGH AREA FROM THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...EXCEPT THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FOR A BRIEF DRY SPELL.
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA (INCLUDING THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA) LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 176.
         GALE WARNING 119 130 131 132 139 150 175 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 13

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2013Every storm warning in 2013

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.