Storm Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

098 
FZAK52 PAFC 171234
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 962 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 460 NM WEST OF
ATTU AT 978 MB LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A 985 MB PACIFIC LOW
CENTERED 460 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT FRI MORNING WILL MOVE TO AROUND
130 NM SOUTHEAST OF UNALASKA AT 974 MB SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT WEST OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 12 FT S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT
12 FT S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT...EXCEPT 13 FT S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 16 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. 
.TONIGHT...W OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. E OF
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-180300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 10 KT E OF 160W. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-180300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E OF PORT MOLLER...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF PORT MOLLER...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY E OF
PORT MOLLER IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT S OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT S OF DUTCH HARBOR. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 
10 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT BERING SIDE...N 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 12 FT
BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT BERING SIDE...27 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT BERING SIDE...SE 20 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT E
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT
E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT E
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-180300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS VERY
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKENING AND HAS HALTED MOST OF ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT PUSHES INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
ON A WESTERLY COURSE BACK TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL
AS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF THOUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND HOLD
ON TO A REASONABLE OVERALL SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BAND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND MORE
TO THE NORTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH DEVELOP MULTIPLE LOWS
ALONG THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE GFS
CONSOLIDATES THE ENERGY INTO ONE STRONGER LOW IN A CENTRAL LOCATION
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY SOLUTION.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWARD TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED BY THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN IS GETTING GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS AS EXPECTED THE AREAS
IN THE COOK INLET REGION THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY ARE GETTING A LITTLE
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED FROM YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST HAS EXPANDED THE AREA OF OPTIMAL LIFT IN THE
REGION TO INCLUDE THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM THE INTO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. A QUESTION FOR THE ANCHORAGE THROUGH MAT-SU AREA IS HOW
LONG THIS SNOW WILL LINGER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DYNAMICS
WILL KEEP FAVORABLE LIFT OVER ANCHORAGE THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY FOR
MOST OF THE EVENING AND LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IT LINGERING FOR A WHILE LONGER IN THIS PATTERN.

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS COLD AIR
WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN COUPLED WITH A RIDGE IN THE GULF SHOULD DIRECT
STORMS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 185. STORM 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13