Gale Warning 77, NWS Anchorage, AK

813 
FZAK51 PAFC 172032 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1130 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

UPDATED 130 136 137 141 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN ON FRI. 
A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI EVENING AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT. 

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NW 15 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-180300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-180300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-180300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1130 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-180300-
CHINIAK BAY
1130 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-180300-
MARMOT BAY
1130 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
1130 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

905 
FZAK51 PAFC 180030
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-181500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-181500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-181500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON S
OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE E WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-181500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-181500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS VERY
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKENING AND HAS HALTED MOST OF ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT PUSHES INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
ON A WESTERLY COURSE BACK TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL
AS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF THOUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND HOLD
ON TO A REASONABLE OVERALL SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BAND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND MORE
TO THE NORTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH DEVELOP MULTIPLE LOWS
ALONG THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE GFS
CONSOLIDATES THE ENERGY INTO ONE STRONGER LOW IN A CENTRAL LOCATION
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY SOLUTION.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWARD TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED BY THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN IS GETTING GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS AS EXPECTED THE AREAS
IN THE COOK INLET REGION THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY ARE GETTING A LITTLE
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED FROM YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST HAS EXPANDED THE AREA OF OPTIMAL LIFT IN THE
REGION TO INCLUDE THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM THE INTO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. A QUESTION FOR THE ANCHORAGE THROUGH MAT-SU AREA IS HOW
LONG THIS SNOW WILL LINGER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DYNAMICS
WILL KEEP FAVORABLE LIFT OVER ANCHORAGE THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY FOR
MOST OF THE EVENING AND LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IT LINGERING FOR A WHILE LONGER IN THIS PATTERN.

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS COLD AIR
WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN COUPLED WITH A RIDGE IN THE GULF SHOULD DIRECT
STORMS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 185. STORM 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13