Storm Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

065 
FZAK62 PAFC 171203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 MB LOW NEAR 51N 168E WILL MOVE TO 52N 161E AT 978 MB LATE
TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON FRI. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A 985 MB PACIFIC LOW CENTERED NEAR 48N 159W
FRI MORNING WILL MOVE TO NEAR 52N 164W AT 974 MB SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 26 TO 31 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.FRI...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 
56N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT E OF 175W.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT E OF 175W.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

335 
FZAK62 PAFC 172357
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 51N 166E WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA FRI MORNING. A 984 MB LOW NEAR 50N 160W FRI AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB NEAR 54N 163W SAT AFTERNOON. A 966 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 46N 175W BY SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 57N.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 58N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 57N. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 57N. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 55N. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 56N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
N OF 56N. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS VERY
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKENING AND HAS HALTED MOST OF ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT PUSHES INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
ON A WESTERLY COURSE BACK TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL
AS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF THOUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND HOLD
ON TO A REASONABLE OVERALL SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BAND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND MORE
TO THE NORTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH DEVELOP MULTIPLE LOWS
ALONG THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE GFS
CONSOLIDATES THE ENERGY INTO ONE STRONGER LOW IN A CENTRAL LOCATION
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY SOLUTION.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWARD TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED BY THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN IS GETTING GOOD SNOW AMOUNTS AS EXPECTED THE AREAS
IN THE COOK INLET REGION THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY ARE GETTING A LITTLE
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED FROM YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST HAS EXPANDED THE AREA OF OPTIMAL LIFT IN THE
REGION TO INCLUDE THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM THE INTO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. A QUESTION FOR THE ANCHORAGE THROUGH MAT-SU AREA IS HOW
LONG THIS SNOW WILL LINGER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DYNAMICS
WILL KEEP FAVORABLE LIFT OVER ANCHORAGE THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY FOR
MOST OF THE EVENING AND LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IT LINGERING FOR A WHILE LONGER IN THIS PATTERN.

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS COLD AIR
WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN COUPLED WITH A RIDGE IN THE GULF SHOULD DIRECT
STORMS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 185. STORM 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13