Storm Warning 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

177 
FZAK52 PAFC 242327 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE EVENING AND REACH
THE NORTH GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. A 988 MB LOW 120 NM NORTH OF
CHIGNIK WED AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 998 MB 125 NM SOUTHWEST
OF CORDOVA THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT DURING THE EVENING...SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S
WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY 
FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-251500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

367 
FZAK52 PAFC 251150
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260300-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 40 NM NORTH OF
PORT HEIDEN AT 990 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND WEAKEN WED NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW WILL FORM 120 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA THU MORNING AND MOVE TO 80 NM WEST OF SITKINAK WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO 975 MB BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN THE MORNING BUILDING TO 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-260300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT. 
SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BERING SIDE...SW 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE. 
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE MORNING WEATHER MAP IS A MATURE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THE LOW HAS NOW
OCCLUDED AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS MOVED WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER ITSELF AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW CENTER ITSELF (RATHER THAN THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT) AND ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE DUTCH HARBOR
AREA...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. BACK
FURTHER WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF TWO
CIRCULATION CENTERS. THIS IS DEFORMING THE PRESSURE FIELD ENOUGH TO
PREVENT HIGH WINDS FROM AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

AHEAD OF THIS LARGE STORM...HIGH PRESSURE IS MAKING FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL...THOUGH A STRONG 150 KT JET
OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS RAPIDLY SPREADING CLOUDINESS INTO THE COOK
INLET REGION. LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY...BUT WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST GAP FLOWS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AS THE INFLUENCE OF
YESTERDAYS LOW HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED NEAR THE PANHANDLE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE
STORM CURRENTLY IN THE BERING. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY AT MAX
INTENSITY AND WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LARGER-PICTURE DETAILS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE ARE SOME TRICKY DETAILS WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WINDS THROUGH SOME OF THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS LIKE
TURNAGAIN ARM. SINCE THE NAM HAS SUPERIOR MODEL RESOLUTION IT WAS
UTILIZED FOR MANY OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST DOMAIN.
MEANWHILE...OUT WEST...THE LARGEST MODEL ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND THE
NEXT LOW IN THE SERIES THAT WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. ALL MODELS HAVE SPED UP THIS
FEATURE DESPITE THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM (WHICH OFTEN
WOULD SLOW DOWN A STORMS FORWARD PROGRESS) BUT IS VERY BELIEVABLE IN
THIS CASE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY STRONG 210 KT JET OVERHEAD FUELING
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS
STORM...THOUGH THE NAM AND EC ARE NOT FAR BEHIND AND ALL DEPICT THE
SAME GENERAL EVOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION IN A HURRY THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE FAR NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
WHERE PRECIP MAY REMAIN A HEAVY WET SNOW DURING THIS EVENT. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE STORM THAT IN TURN IS
ENDING THE STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH OF WARM AIR EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN
THE STORMS LIFECYCLE. WITH DUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECT
EVEN THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN AS
STRONG WINDS BLOW THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS.

SOUTHWEST...THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE AS WINDS AND PRECIP HAVE BOTH BEEN WEAKENING
AS THE FRONT RACES AHEAD OF THE LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE BACK IN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES BRISTOL BAY...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY ENSURE
PRECIP IS MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THAN A STEADY AND PERSISTENT RAIN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED AT THE FEW OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS...LIKELY DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS FRAGMENTING THE
STORMS ENERGY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION MAKING WEDNESDAY A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER DAY. BY
THURSDAY THE STRONG JET ALOFT WILL START A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRACK TO PREVIOUS LOWS (THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF) BUT FORWARD SPEED WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT
STORM. THIS MEANS WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT LOW (MUCH MORE LIKE THE STORM OF LAST
WEEKEND) AND WILL RESULT IN HIGH WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BERING SEA REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WILL
LARGELY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH PACIFIC
RIDGE MAY FLATTEN A BIT...ALLOWING THE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE BERING
TO SAG SOUTHWARD...THOUGH STORMS STILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185
MARINE...STORM 155 170
         GALE 120 125 130 132 150 160 165 171 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13