Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SURFACE LOW FORMED FROM YESTERDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GAP WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE GULF COAST AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR...WHICH
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WESTWARD LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WHERE
THEY THEN START TO HAVE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM
IS TOO WEAK AND EAST WITH THE LOW POSITION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE TOO QUICK TO BRING THE LOW INTO THE BERING. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT
CAUSED TEMPERATURES FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE KENAI PENINSULA TO PLUMMET
AS MUCH AS 40 DEGREES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS LIKE
RESURRECTION BAY...THOMPSON PASS...AND THE WHITTIER AREA TODAY. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALSO CONSIDERED FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
FOR TODAY...BUT IT WAS DECIDED WEAKENING WINDS WOULD KEEP THE
AREA JUST UNDER WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

SOUTHWEST...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WIND CHILLS WERE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EASTERN ALEUTIAN
LOW. THIS LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SNOWFALL WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA FROM LATER TODAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO REACH INTO THE PRIBILOFS FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AS ALL SNOW. JUST AS IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE. THE WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 AND 141
MARINE...GALE 121 127 128 129 130 155 170 172 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 138 141 140 160
                              165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK JAN 13