Brisk Wind Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

162 
FZAK52 PAFC 271211
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 971 MB AS IT MOVES TO
420 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR ON MON MORNING...THEN MOVE TO 60 NM
NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT THE SAME STRENGTH TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
BERING SIDE.
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
BERING SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13
FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SURFACE LOW FORMED FROM YESTERDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GAP WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE GULF COAST AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR...WHICH
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WESTWARD LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WHERE
THEY THEN START TO HAVE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM
IS TOO WEAK AND EAST WITH THE LOW POSITION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE TOO QUICK TO BRING THE LOW INTO THE BERING. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT
CAUSED TEMPERATURES FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE KENAI PENINSULA TO PLUMMET
AS MUCH AS 40 DEGREES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS LIKE
RESURRECTION BAY...THOMPSON PASS...AND THE WHITTIER AREA TODAY. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALSO CONSIDERED FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
FOR TODAY...BUT IT WAS DECIDED WEAKENING WINDS WOULD KEEP THE
AREA JUST UNDER WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

SOUTHWEST...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WIND CHILLS WERE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EASTERN ALEUTIAN
LOW. THIS LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SNOWFALL WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA FROM LATER TODAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO REACH INTO THE PRIBILOFS FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AS ALL SNOW. JUST AS IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE. THE WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 AND 141
MARINE...GALE 121 127 128 129 130 155 170 172 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 138 141 140 160
                              165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK JAN 13