Blizzard Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

284 
WWAK42 PAFC 271348
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

AKZ185-280700-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0003.130127T1500Z-130128T1900Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.130127T2200Z-130128T1900Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
448 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
AKST MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...EASTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING UNALASKA.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE
  MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
  MONDAY MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING AS
  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL MAY BECOME
  VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-280700-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0004.130128T0200Z-130128T2300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
448 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM
AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM
AKST MONDAY. 

* LOCATION...THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ALONG
  THE COAST.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 BELOW TO 55 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
  TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY RISE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
  FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ181-280700-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.A.0003.130128T0400Z-130128T1900Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
448 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* SNOW...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT 
  TIMES. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST 20 TO 40 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
  THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE MONDAY MORNING.
  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
  RAPID REDUCTION IN BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

899 
WWAK42 PAFC 272036
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1136 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

AKZ181-281545-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0003.130128T0400Z-130128T1900Z/
/X.EXB.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.130128T0200Z-130128T2000Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
1136 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
AKST MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 20 TO 40 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING AND
  SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE MONDAY
  MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY
  MORNING...WITH A RAPID REDUCTION IN BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ185-281545-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.130127T2200Z-130128T1900Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
1136 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...EASTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING UNALASKA.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS MORNING WITH 
  THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 
  FREEZING MONDAY MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW DIMINISHING BY LATE 
  MORNING AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-281545-
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.130128T1800Z-130129T0600Z/
/X.EXB.PAFC.WC.Y.0004.130128T0900Z-130128T1800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
1136 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
AKST MONDAY... 
...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST
MONDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS BLIZZARD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

* LOCATION...THROUGHOUT BRISTOL BAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST WEST
  OF KING SALMON.

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...35 TO 45 BELOW THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
  MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL START SOUTH OF KING SALMON
  IN THE MORNING AND MOVE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME
  VERY DIFFICULT. INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

AKZ155-281545-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0004.130128T0200Z-130128T2300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
1136 AM AKST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 2 PM AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH 
  ALONG THE COAST. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 BELOW TO 55 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
  TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY RISE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM 
  FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SURFACE LOW FORMED FROM YESTERDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GAP WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE GULF COAST AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR...WHICH
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WESTWARD LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WHERE
THEY THEN START TO HAVE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM
IS TOO WEAK AND EAST WITH THE LOW POSITION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE TOO QUICK TO BRING THE LOW INTO THE BERING. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THAT
CAUSED TEMPERATURES FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE KENAI PENINSULA TO PLUMMET
AS MUCH AS 40 DEGREES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS LIKE
RESURRECTION BAY...THOMPSON PASS...AND THE WHITTIER AREA TODAY. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALSO CONSIDERED FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
FOR TODAY...BUT IT WAS DECIDED WEAKENING WINDS WOULD KEEP THE
AREA JUST UNDER WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

SOUTHWEST...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WIND CHILLS WERE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EASTERN ALEUTIAN
LOW. THIS LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SNOWFALL WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA FROM LATER TODAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO REACH INTO THE PRIBILOFS FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AS ALL SNOW. JUST AS IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE. THE WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 AND 141
MARINE...GALE 121 127 128 129 130 155 170 172 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 138 141 140 160
                              165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK JAN 13