Small Craft Advisory 1040, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
                                                         FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE STATE
HAS A LOW IN THE ARCTIC AND A SECOND ONE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS IS BRINGING THE
JET STREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHICH CAN BE SEEN WELL ON SATELLITE.

AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A TRIPLE POINT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AT THE SURFACE A LARGE LOW IS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHICH
EXTENDS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST BERING SEA.
THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS OVER ALL ARE DOING BETTER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE MASSIVE DISCREPANCY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO BE
RESOLVED WITH MODELS CONVERGING TO THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE ECMWF WAS
PRESENTING YESTERDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THEY HAVE DETECTED THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE WAY THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED
INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT THE AREA AROUND CORDOVA AND FARTHER
EASTWARD WILL SEE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION THE TRIPLE POINT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BECOME A MORE PROMINENT FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME SNOW INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING.
THE KODIAK AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL AND A FEW AREAS OF
LIMITED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE ISLAND HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID 30S WHICH HAS CAUSED AREAS
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TO MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN. THE OTHER PARTS OF
EASTERN KODIAK ISLAND HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BETTER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS THE TRANSITION TO COLDER
AIR OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING THERE MAY BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW IN KODIAK...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR
SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THE SNOWFALL RATES SO IT LIKELY WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED.

SOUTHWEST...THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRISTOL BAY IS SEEING A FEW AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA.
FARTHER INLAND THE FEW CLOUDS THAT ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY RUN INTO THE RIDGE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALASKA PENINSULA/ALEUTIANS...PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE LOWS
STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF RAIN AND SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AGAIN
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND AREA FOR MOST OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN TO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130-137 177 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127 130 139 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13