Gale Warning 866, NWS Anchorage, AK

708 
FZAK62 PAFC 251241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 52N 176W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 176W AT 991 MB THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A 965 MB LOW NEAR 48N 179E THU MORNING
WILL MOVE TO 47N 177W AT 968 MB FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 20 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. S OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JM

608 
FZAK62 PAFC 260030
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT.  
A LOW COMPLEX NEAR 43N 176E WILL MOVE TO 47N 178W THU AFTERNOON 
AT 965 MB AND THEN TO 45N 170W FRI AFTERNOON AT 979 MB. AN 
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
BERING SEA ON FRI.
$$

PKZ411-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT EXCEPT NORTH 10 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. STRONGEST N OF 57N. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. STRONGEST N OF 56N. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. STRONGEST N OF 56N. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

974 
FZAK62 PAFC 261216
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A COMPLEX 963 MB LOW NEAR 46N 179E THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 46N 174W
FRI MORNING AT 965 MB WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR
44N 166W SAT MORNING AT 987 MB.
$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 26 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
                                                         FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE STATE
HAS A LOW IN THE ARCTIC AND A SECOND ONE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS IS BRINGING THE
JET STREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHICH CAN BE SEEN WELL ON SATELLITE.

AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A TRIPLE POINT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AT THE SURFACE A LARGE LOW IS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHICH
EXTENDS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST BERING SEA.
THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS OVER ALL ARE DOING BETTER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE MASSIVE DISCREPANCY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO BE
RESOLVED WITH MODELS CONVERGING TO THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE ECMWF WAS
PRESENTING YESTERDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THEY HAVE DETECTED THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE WAY THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED
INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT THE AREA AROUND CORDOVA AND FARTHER
EASTWARD WILL SEE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION THE TRIPLE POINT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BECOME A MORE PROMINENT FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME SNOW INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING.
THE KODIAK AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL AND A FEW AREAS OF
LIMITED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE ISLAND HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID 30S WHICH HAS CAUSED AREAS
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TO MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN. THE OTHER PARTS OF
EASTERN KODIAK ISLAND HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BETTER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS THE TRANSITION TO COLDER
AIR OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING THERE MAY BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW IN KODIAK...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR
SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THE SNOWFALL RATES SO IT LIKELY WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED.

SOUTHWEST...THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRISTOL BAY IS SEEING A FEW AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA.
FARTHER INLAND THE FEW CLOUDS THAT ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY RUN INTO THE RIDGE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALASKA PENINSULA/ALEUTIANS...PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE LOWS
STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF RAIN AND SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AGAIN
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND AREA FOR MOST OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN TO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130-137 177 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127 130 139 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13