Gale Warning 944, NWS Anchorage, AK

674 
FZAK51 PAFC 251258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO 70 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AT 1000 MB THU MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY THU
EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-260300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-260300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY DURING THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR SEWARD. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-260300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-260300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-260300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-260300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-260300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING NEAR THE
BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE DURING THE
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-260300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-260300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-260300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-260300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 25 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
                                                         FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE STATE
HAS A LOW IN THE ARCTIC AND A SECOND ONE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS OUT OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS IS BRINGING THE
JET STREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHICH CAN BE SEEN WELL ON SATELLITE.

AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A TRIPLE POINT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE GREATEST LIFT IN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AT THE SURFACE A LARGE LOW IS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHICH
EXTENDS OVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST BERING SEA.
THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS OVER ALL ARE DOING BETTER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE MASSIVE DISCREPANCY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO BE
RESOLVED WITH MODELS CONVERGING TO THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE ECMWF WAS
PRESENTING YESTERDAY.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THEY HAVE DETECTED THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE WAY THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED
INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT THE AREA AROUND CORDOVA AND FARTHER
EASTWARD WILL SEE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION THE TRIPLE POINT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BECOME A MORE PROMINENT FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME SNOW INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING.
THE KODIAK AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL AND A FEW AREAS OF
LIMITED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE ISLAND HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID 30S WHICH HAS CAUSED AREAS
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TO MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN. THE OTHER PARTS OF
EASTERN KODIAK ISLAND HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BETTER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS THE TRANSITION TO COLDER
AIR OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING THERE MAY BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW IN KODIAK...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR
SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THE SNOWFALL RATES SO IT LIKELY WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED.

SOUTHWEST...THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRISTOL BAY IS SEEING A FEW AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA.
FARTHER INLAND THE FEW CLOUDS THAT ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THEY RUN INTO THE RIDGE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALASKA PENINSULA/ALEUTIANS...PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE LOWS
STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF RAIN AND SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AGAIN
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND AREA FOR MOST OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN TO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130-137 177 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127 130 139 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13