Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

245 
WWAK61 PAFC 030548
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
948 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

AKZ141-030700-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130803T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
948 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND ALONG THE COPPER
RIVER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS ACROSS THE THE COPPER RIVER HAVE TAPERED OFF OVER THE LAST
HOUR AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA TO THE YUKON DELTA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING
OVER SOUTH ALASKA BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. FURTHER WEST...A
CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND IS MOVING A
FRONT TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING IS KEEPING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE BERING STRAIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE
IN THE FORECAST IS THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERED ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER...WITH THE NAM MODEL AN OUTLIER ON THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE USED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THIS MORNING. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE
A FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONT BEGIN TO ADVANCE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. ALSO WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AHEAD THE
FRONT...WINDS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
GUSTY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY INCREASE
TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA TRACKS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE BERING WITH FOG
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY IN
THE FORECAST WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WETTER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 136 137 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KH AUG 13