Gale Warning 461, NWS Anchorage, AK

881 
FZAK61 PAFC 030008 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
408 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031500-
408 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 54N 155W MOVES TO 57N 158W AT 993 MB SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVES INLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

$$

PKZ351-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

254 
FZAK61 PAFC 031147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040300-
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 157W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 58N 159W LATE THIS
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN
MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA TO THE YUKON DELTA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING
OVER SOUTH ALASKA BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. FURTHER WEST...A
CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND IS MOVING A
FRONT TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING IS KEEPING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE BERING STRAIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE
IN THE FORECAST IS THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERED ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER...WITH THE NAM MODEL AN OUTLIER ON THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE USED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THIS MORNING. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE
A FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONT BEGIN TO ADVANCE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. ALSO WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AHEAD THE
FRONT...WINDS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
GUSTY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY INCREASE
TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA TRACKS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE BERING WITH FOG
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY IN
THE FORECAST WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WETTER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 136 137 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KH AUG 13