Gale Warning 480, NWS Anchorage, AK

064 
FZAK51 PAFC 031544 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
735 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

UPDATE TO ZONE 121 126 138 AND 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 90 NM WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
DILLINGHAM LATE THIS MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
735 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-040300-
PORT VALDEZ
735 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-040300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-040300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-040300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-040300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
735 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
735 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT
OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

534 
FZAK51 PAFC 032349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY. A 988 MB LOW MOVES
TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT..EXCEPT SE 30 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT DIMINISHING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-041500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-041500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-041500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT E OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 9
FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-041500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-041500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO FEEL MORE AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE YESTERDAY IS NOW
BECOMING THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MATURE OCCLUDED SYSTEM IN THE 980 MB
RANGE. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS CURRENTLY SEEING SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. TOWARD THE EASTERN DOMAIN...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND NORTH GULF COAST CONTINUES TO BUILD THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LEADING TO A TURNAGAIN ARM
WIND WITH STRONGEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ARM NEAR BIRD
POINT AND MCHUGH CREEK...ALREADY BLOWING 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT NATURE OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER ALL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW JUST
WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT THEN PAST INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY/KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AREA TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY. BOTH DOMAINS PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION
FOR DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE MAINLAND THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TURNAGAIN ARM/HIGHER ELEVATION WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES PEAKING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
UPWARDS OF 60 MPH. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA SHOULD STAY DOWN-SLOPED AND MAINLY DRY THOUGH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS OFF
OF THE ARM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES TOMORROW PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONTAINED TO
COASTAL AREAS AND THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STAYING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THE CHANCE FOR RAIN STAYS IN
THE FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADIER RAIN IN
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES
OVERHEAD AND THE AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH GAPS ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. THE STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE. STEADY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MOST OF
THE BERING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE BERING WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CLOSER TO BRISTOL BAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LOW. GUSTY CHANNELED TERRAIN WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT STATE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST/BERING/AKPEN WILL
KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES
AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 136 137 138 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL AUG 13