Gale Warning 862, NWS Anchorage, AK

025 
FZAK61 PAFC 220001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221500-
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 56N 151W PEAKS AT 986 MB NEAR 59N 146W LATE SUN
MORNING...THEN WEAKENS TO 998 MB AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND DISSIPATES
NEAR YAKUTAT LATE SUN NIGHT. A TROUGH WITH WEAK RESIDUAL LOWS
PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FROM
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

788 
FZAK61 PAFC 221240
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230300-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES ONSHORE AND DISSIPATES ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT THROUGH MON MORNING. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

779 
FZAK61 PAFC 230030
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 MB LOW NEAR 60N 145W MOVES ONSHORE AND DISSIPATES ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT LATE MON MORNING...WITH A
RESIDUAL TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MON
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING W VARIABLE 15 KT W OF 148W IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

559 
FZAK61 PAFC 231221
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT DISSIPATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A 997 MB LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 54N 151W TUE MORNING...THEN MOVE TO
58N 146W AT 998 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

783 
FZAK61 PAFC 240006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241200-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 60N 140W WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 53N 153W TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 57N 148W AT 996 MB TUE
EVENING THEN MOVE TO 59N 142W AT 1000 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-241200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT E OF 147W.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 TO 30 W OF 148W. WINDS
BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 20 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE STATE
TODAY HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS IN EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF IT ACROSS THE
BERING SEA INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM RUNS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOW CENTER IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA HAS ELONGATED AND DEVELOPED TWO DISTINCT CENTERS. THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO IS THE NORTHERN ONE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TOMORROW. THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS CENTER WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS IT TAPS INTO THE
JET STREAM OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION HAS BEEN GOOD TODAY WITH ALL
MODELS LOCKED ON TO THE MAIN AND SECONDARY FEATURES. THE LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF TOMORROW IS STILL CAUSING DIFFICULTIES...BUT MORE WITH THE NAM
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM WAS NOT USED MUCH PAST THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS IT DEFINITELY THE OUTLIER WITH NO
METEOROLOGICAL REASON TO SUGGEST IT SEES SOMETHING THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT. OVERALL THE ECMWF MODEL WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THE GEM
MATCHES VERY CLOSELY TO IT AND THEY BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THE LOW IN
THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK BETTER THAN THE GFS DOES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
WEATHER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH COOK INLET. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
LIKE IT IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALMOST ENTIRELY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WHICH WILL
LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE A AREA BETWEEN
THE SNOW AND RAIN WHERE THERE IS FREEZING RAIN ON THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE A VERY BIG AREA BUT IT
MAY BE THERE. FREEZING RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA OR
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AS
THIS FRONT SIS BRING A LOT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TODAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO TURN
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE PLACE WITH GREATEST
CHANCE FOR CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS COLD
AIR IN THE VALLEY AREAS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
PRODUCING RAIN. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX...WITHOUT THE FREEZING RAIN...UNTIL IT CLEARS OUT SOME ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS AND WPC GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS
INTO THE BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AND DECAY ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
TUESDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
INTO FRI. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MORE FREEZING RAIN.

SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING SEA FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH SOME SNOW CROSSING THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH FREEZING RAIN....WHILE POSSIBLE...UNLIKELY TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 150 155 160 173 175 176 177 178 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13