Freezing Rain Advisory 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

072 
WWAK41 PAFC 211353
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

AKZ121-220300-
/X.EXT.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
453 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FROM ANCHOR POINT NORTH...

* LOCATION...FROM ANCHOR POINT NORTH.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS
  EVENING AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ125-212100-
/X.EXT.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131221T2100Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
453 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR
INLAND AREAS...

* LOCATION...INLAND AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE SEWARD AND STERLING 
  HIGHWAYS BETWEEN TURNAGAIN PASS AND MOOSE PASS. 

* ICE ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY
  AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

348 
WWAK41 PAFC 211916
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1016 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

AKZ125-220600-
/X.EXT.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1016 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING INLAND AREAS...

* LOCATION...INLAND AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE SEWARD AND STERLING 
  HIGHWAYS BETWEEN TURNAGAIN PASS AND MOOSE PASS. 

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
  EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ121-220600-
/X.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
1016 AM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FROM ANCHOR POINT NORTH...

* LOCATION...MAINLY ALONG THE STERLING HIGHWAY FROM ANCHOR POINT
  NORTH.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
  WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

767 
WWAK41 PAFC 220057
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

AKZ121-220200-
/X.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
357 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 

FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BETWEEN HOMER AND CLAM GULCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO ICE ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

AKZ125-220600-
/X.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
357 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS...

* LOCATION...INLAND AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE SEWARD AND STERLING 
  HIGHWAYS BETWEEN TURNAGAIN PASS AND MOOSE PASS. 

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 
  EARLY THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

069 
WWAK41 PAFC 220601
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
901 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013



AKZ125-220715-
/X.EXP.PAFC.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
901 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...



$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 AM AKST FRI DEC 20 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE BERING SEA CENTERED
OVER 170W...EXTENDING SOUTH TO AROUND 35N. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
SITUATED OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND EASTERN SIBERIA...WITH A BROAD
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE NUMEROUS WEAK WAVE DISTURBANCES...WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF THESE FEATURES CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO BRISTOL BAY. AN ASSOCIATED 985 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER THE BERING SEA WILL TRACK INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SLIDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL...ENHANCING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.
EVENTUALLY...THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND THE GULF...WITH A GULF LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DUE TO ITS POOR ABILITY TO
HANDLE COMPLEX PATTERNS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...THE NAM WAS LARGELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SHOW SUPERIOR CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGER DISCREPANCIES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE SUBTLE...AND MOSTLY ARISE
AROUND THE THERMAL PROFILE HEADING INTO LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. EXACTLY HOW MUCH WARM AIR PUSHES UP COOK
INLET IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS THE
WARMEST...AND THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN REGIONAL DPS GENERALLY THE
COOLEST. A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WAS TAKEN...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COOK INLET INTO ANCHORAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A MIX TO RAIN ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS...AND
ALL RAIN FOR KODIAK ISLAND. AREAS UP COOK INLET WILL WARM ALOFT
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE KENAI TURNING TO
RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN INLAND BEFORE A GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS...BUT
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL END ON SAT...AND
THEN THE APPROACHING NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL SPREAD GALES...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN
ISLANDS SUN NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...
PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE
IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA THIS MORNING. OVERRUNNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD FREEZING RAIN OVER
THOSE ZONES TODAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVES AT THE SURFACE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THE FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH INLAND SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
AND BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS. BY SAT NIGHT RIDGING WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS
INTO THE BERING BY TUE AND DECAY ON THU. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
CROSS INTO THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST AK ON TUE. A SECOND LOW MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU INTO FRI. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING WIND
AND RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN. SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SW AK DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MORE FREEZING RAIN.

SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ON
MON BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA. ON TUE REMNANTS OF THE
BERING FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WITH SOME SNOW CROSSING THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. BY WED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155.
MARINE...GALES 119 130 173 175 177 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY: 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER/DS DEC 13