Gale Warning 861, NWS Anchorage, AK

224 
FZAK62 PAFC 220006
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 59N 174E MOVES INLAND NEAR THE YUKON RIVER DELTA
SUN NIGHT. A LARGE 962 MB LOW NEAR 43N 165E PEAKS AT 959 MB NEAR 46N
170E SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 963 MB NEAR 48N 174E MON
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON. 
$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT W 25 KT N OF 55N IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

JM

601 
FZAK62 PAFC 221251
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A LARGE 961 MB LOW NEAR 45N 163E MOVES TO 48N 170E LATE TONIGHT AT
960 MB...THEN WEAKENS TO 969 MB NEAR 48N 178E LATE MON NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MON.

$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 20 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE STATE
TODAY HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS IN EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF IT ACROSS THE
BERING SEA INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM RUNS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOW CENTER IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA HAS ELONGATED AND DEVELOPED TWO DISTINCT CENTERS. THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO IS THE NORTHERN ONE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TOMORROW. THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS CENTER WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS IT TAPS INTO THE
JET STREAM OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION HAS BEEN GOOD TODAY WITH ALL
MODELS LOCKED ON TO THE MAIN AND SECONDARY FEATURES. THE LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF TOMORROW IS STILL CAUSING DIFFICULTIES...BUT MORE WITH THE NAM
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM WAS NOT USED MUCH PAST THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AS IT DEFINITELY THE OUTLIER WITH NO
METEOROLOGICAL REASON TO SUGGEST IT SEES SOMETHING THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT. OVERALL THE ECMWF MODEL WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THE GEM
MATCHES VERY CLOSELY TO IT AND THEY BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THE LOW IN
THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK BETTER THAN THE GFS DOES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
WEATHER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH COOK INLET. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
LIKE IT IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALMOST ENTIRELY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WHICH WILL
LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE A AREA BETWEEN
THE SNOW AND RAIN WHERE THERE IS FREEZING RAIN ON THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE A VERY BIG AREA BUT IT
MAY BE THERE. FREEZING RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA OR
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AS
THIS FRONT SIS BRING A LOT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TODAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO TURN
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE PLACE WITH GREATEST
CHANCE FOR CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS COLD
AIR IN THE VALLEY AREAS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
PRODUCING RAIN. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX...WITHOUT THE FREEZING RAIN...UNTIL IT CLEARS OUT SOME ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS AND WPC GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS
INTO THE BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AND DECAY ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
TUESDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
INTO FRI. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MORE FREEZING RAIN.

SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING SEA FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH SOME SNOW CROSSING THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH FREEZING RAIN....WHILE POSSIBLE...UNLIKELY TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 130 150 155 160 173 175 176 177 178 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13