Gale Warning 636, NWS Anchorage, AK

265 
FZAK61 PAFC 141149
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

915 
FZAK61 PAFC 142300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-151500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE 
AND PERSIST THROUGH WED. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ351-151500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-151500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 14 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

604 
FZAK61 PAFC 151148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160300-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

043 
FZAK61 PAFC 152252
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-161500-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. 
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-161500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-161500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS ALASKA...WITH ONE
LONGWAVE TROUGH/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING
SEA AND ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TODAY. THE
EASTERN BERING LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS NORTHWARD OVER THE
MAINLAND TONIGHT. BRIEF RIDGING WILL PUSH NORTHWARD BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF KENAI THIS
AFTERNOON...THEREFORE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK RIVER VALLEY...AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS
A BARRIER JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START OUT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE BERING SEA EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THAT
LOW. AT THIS POINT THE NAM IS THE MAIN OUTLIER...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES INCREASE TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL OVERALL FOR
THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL AK...AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TONIGHT...GAP WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AT MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM TO SOME EXTENT WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY AND THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
LOWS/FRONTS ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A WET AND
WINDY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.

WESTERN ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...AFTER THIS CURRENT LOW
EXITS THE AREA...WEAK RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...SWINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE BERING ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND TO THESE
LOCATIONS. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF THE MEAN LOW POSITION OVER THE
BERING SEA AND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION JUST TO THE EAST OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WARM...WET...AND POSSIBLY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AK
DURING THIS TIME...EACH BRINGING THE SOIL MORE AND MORE TOWARD
SATURATION. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK IS THE
KENAI PENINSULA...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOW
GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING...ALREADY CAUSING AT LEAST NEAR
BANKFULL CONDITIONS ALONG THE KENAI RIVER. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS
THE CREEKS/STREAMS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WHICH RESPOND QUICKLY TO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WE WILL BE WATCHING THESE AREAS IN THE COMING
DAYS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 132 150 155 170 171 172 173 174
                      175 176 177 178 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK