Gale Warning 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

218 
FZAK61 PAFC 251252
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE TO 59N 140W AT 1001
MB SATURDAY NIGHT. A 984 MB LOW NEAR 56N 137W WILL MOVE TO THE
PANHANDLE AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

356 
FZAK61 PAFC 260012
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR 59N 146W WILL MOVE TO 59N 141W AND WEAKEN TO 998 
MB SAT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 1009 MB AND DRIFT TO TO 59N 142W SUN
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND SUN
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

832 
FZAK61 PAFC 261248
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 999 MB LOW NEAR 60N 144W WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

248 
FZAK61 PAFC 262356
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 996 MB LOW NEAR 59N 142W WILL WEAKEN TO 1011 MB NEAR 58N 142W MON
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND SUN
EVENING. 
$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
147W. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 26 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
147W. 
.SUN...W TO N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. WIND BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT W OF 149W. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY SURROUND THE STATE OF ALASKA.  THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL...AND WILL BE THE NEXT SNOW PRODUCING
SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THE SECOND IS A STORM FORCE LOW
THAT IS NEARLY TO THE SHEMYA AREA...AND WILL BRING THAT AREA A ROUND
OF RAIN AND SNOW TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA....AND CONTINUING TO BRING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING...SO THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE MODEL AGREEMENT THEN CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE LATE SUNDAY WITH A SERIES
OF COMPLEX LOWS MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER A WEAK LOW WILL FORM OFF OF KODIAK ISLAND
ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY WE PREFER THE GFS/HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
WEAK LOW INTO THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...AS STATED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...THERE IS NOW
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS MOMENT THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL...BUT GREATER ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN AREAS SUCH AS HATCHERS PASS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
WILL THEN QUICKLY FALL STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY AS THE WEAKENING LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER BACK INTO THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BE THE FIRST
AREA TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST SIDE
OF THE DESCENDING UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO 45 BELOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. COLD AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE NEXT STORM FORCE LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...RAIN...AND SNOW TO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS STARTING THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY QUITE LOW AT THE
MOMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN AN ALEUTIAN LOW AND RIDGE HOLDING OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA. THE EC IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE INTERIOR
RIDGE...AND AS A RESULT IS ALSO THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE LOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS WEAKER
WITH THE INTERIOR RIDGE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO PROGRESS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145. WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...STORM 176. GALE 130 172 175 411. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130
160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK JAN 13