Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

734 
FZAK52 PAFC 260011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW JUST WEST OF ATTU WILL DRIFT TO 120 NM WEST OF ATTU SAT
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF 
ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN W OF PORT MOLLER.
FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E
OF PORT MOLLER. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING
SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-261500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE STATE
TODAY SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A TROUGH IN
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. A PRONOUNCED RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU. THE JET STREAM
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE THERE ARE THREE MAJOR FEATURES IMPACTING THE REGION.
THE FIRST IS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE STATE
WITH A RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR OF THE STATE AS
WELL AS INTO A LARGE PART OF THE BERING SEA. THE OTHER TWO FEATURES
ARE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ONE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE
OTHER SOUTH OF ATTU. BOTH OF THESE LOWS ARE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS DO WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
ONLY SOME MINOR CONCERNS SHOWING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEY RAPIDLY
GO DOWNHILL IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT PATTERNS SETTING UP. NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN
VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN EITHER. THIS IS MAKING THE FORECAST
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK ON VERY UNCERTAIN.
AS FOR THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE SATURDAY: THE LOW IN
THE GULF INITIALIZED BETTER ON THE NAM AND THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE LOW IN
THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THEN DISSIPATES IT FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF THE
GFS WHICH SENDS IS SOUTH OF THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. THE FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE EAST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE THE MODELS. THEY ALL HAVE
IT BUT TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFER FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN.
THE IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS FROM THE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA REGION AT FIRST BUT THE WAY THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST SURFACE FEATURE ON THE MAP
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS THE LOW IN THE GULF
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND NOT IMPACT THE WEATHER MUCH. THE
FEATURE THAT IS SIGNIFICANT IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
DROPPING OUT OF THE INTERIOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. A SMALL BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW IS THE ONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE COOK
INLET REGION. THIS COMBINATION WILL GENERATE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. SNOW
IS ALREADY FALLING IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY FROM
THE PARKS HIGHWAY EAST IS UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL WILL LESSEN AS ONE HEAD SOUTH BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ACCUMULATION INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE SOME PUNCH AS IT HEADS EASTWARD BUT
IT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE IT IS RATHER WARM NOW IN COASTAL AREAS
THERE IS A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE ENOUGH IN THOMPSON PASS TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO NEARLY 16
INCHES OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IN THE PASS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS MERELY
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THOMPSON PASS WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY THEREFORE A BLIZZARD WATCH
WAS ISSUED.

THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AS SEE GUSTY
WINDS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT PROMPTING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WITH WIND CHILLS THAT LOW BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE LOW THAT IS APPROACHING IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY
QUITE LOW...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN ALEUTIAN LOW AND RIDGE HOLDING OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE
INTERIOR RIDGE...AND AS A RESULT IS ALSO THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST SOLUTION IS WEAKER WITH THE INTERIOR
RIDGE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO PROGRESS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145. WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 131.
MARINE...GALE 130 175 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13