Blizzard Watch 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

462 
WWAK41 PAFC 250109 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
408 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...COLD AIR AND SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM INTERIOR ALASKA WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY.

AKZ145-251530-
/X.COR.PAFC.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-130125T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
408 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKST
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG AND EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW
  ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
  DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED 
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ131-251530-
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.A.0002.130126T0600Z-130127T1800Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
408 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...WHILE FALLING SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING...UP TO 16 INCHES
  OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS STILL AVAILIBLE.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME
  VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

148 
WWAK41 PAFC 251404
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH...

.VERY COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS COLD AIR WILL ACCELERATE AS IT FLOWS
THROUGH GAPS IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS THE AREA. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHILE
STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP LOOSE SNOW AND GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

AKZ131-260315-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0002.130126T0600Z-130127T1800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0002.130126T0900Z-130127T1800Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
504 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST
SUNDAY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST
SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...WHILE FALLING SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING...UP TO 16 INCHES
  OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS STILL AVAILABLE.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT
  CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-260315-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0003.130126T0300Z-130127T1800Z/
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-130125T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
504 AM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM
AKST THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
AKST SUNDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
SUNDAY. 

* LOCATION...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS NORTH OF TALKEETNA. SNOW
  CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW

* TIMING...SNOW WILL END BY MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
  THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH
  THE ALASKA RANGE. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
  EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY SURROUND THE STATE OF ALASKA.  THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE IS SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL...AND WILL BE THE NEXT SNOW PRODUCING
SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THE SECOND IS A STORM FORCE LOW
THAT IS NEARLY TO THE SHEMYA AREA...AND WILL BRING THAT AREA A ROUND
OF RAIN AND SNOW TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA....AND CONTINUING TO BRING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING...SO THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE MODEL AGREEMENT THEN CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE LATE SUNDAY WITH A SERIES
OF COMPLEX LOWS MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER A WEAK LOW WILL FORM OFF OF KODIAK ISLAND
ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY WE PREFER THE GFS/HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
WEAK LOW INTO THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...AS STATED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...THERE IS NOW
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS MOMENT THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL STAY JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL...BUT GREATER ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN AREAS SUCH AS HATCHERS PASS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
WILL THEN QUICKLY FALL STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY AS THE WEAKENING LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER BACK INTO THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BE THE FIRST
AREA TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST SIDE
OF THE DESCENDING UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO 45 BELOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. COLD AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE NEXT STORM FORCE LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...RAIN...AND SNOW TO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS STARTING THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY QUITE LOW AT THE
MOMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN AN ALEUTIAN LOW AND RIDGE HOLDING OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA. THE EC IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE INTERIOR
RIDGE...AND AS A RESULT IS ALSO THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE LOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS WEAKER
WITH THE INTERIOR RIDGE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO PROGRESS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145. WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...STORM 176. GALE 130 172 175 411. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130
160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK JAN 13