Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING UP ON
OK/KS BORDER PRESENTLY CONTINUES TO SHOW TENDENCY OF DEVELOPMENT
ON THE WESTERN FLANK AS THE WHOLE COMPLEX DIVES SOUTH. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AXIS
OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY ORIENTED NEAR I-44. A LIMITED THREAT WILL
EXIST OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PRESENT
THROUGHOUT EASTERN OK. OTHER TERRAIN FORCED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
A PRE FIRST PERIOD WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS SOME OF NE OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 00Z BUT THERE IS A SHOT AT LEAST OF SOME MAKING IT INTO SE
OKLAHOMA AS WELL. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD BE GONE AFTER 06Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
ALSO LEADS TO A MODEST BREAK DOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL
KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. BEYOND
THAT STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT BOOMING WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 75 THROUGH MID WEEK BUT BY
LATE NEXT WEEK HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...AND RECENT BIAS ADJUSTMENT
TO MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS WELL OVER 100 BY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75 100  77  98 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  98  75  96 /  20  20  30  30
MLC   71  95  71  93 /  20  10  20  20
BVO   66 100  69  99 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   65  94  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
BYV   69  93  68  92 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   72  99  71  97 /  30  10  10  20
MIO   70 100  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
F10   70 100  72  96 /  30  10  10  20
HHW   73  93  72  91 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

OKZ054-055-132130-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
359 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 359 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
HULAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULAH AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3686 9589 3677 9602 3688 9614 3699 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 317DEG 6KT 3688 9602

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

OKZ054-055-060-132215-
OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
414 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN TULSA AND WASHINGTON

AT 414 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF FORAKER TO WOLCO...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
TULSA...PAWHUSKA...AVANT...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...TALLANT...
NELAGONEY...OKESA...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...SKIATOOK...
BARTLESVILLE...VERA...RAMONA...OCHELATA AND OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3674 9585 3624 9588 3674 9654 3700 9661
      3701 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 339DEG 15KT 3692 9653 3654 9606

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
438 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

OKZ060>063-067-068-132215-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
438 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...MAYES...ROGERS...NORTHEASTERN TULSA AND
     NORTHERN WAGONER

AT 436 PM CDT...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 2 MILES EAST OF COLLINSVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUSHYHEAD
TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF SPAVINAW STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE GUSTY WINDS
INCLUDE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...INOLA...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...
FOYIL...OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD...PEGGS...OWASSO...COLLINSVILLE...BROKEN
ARROW...PRYOR...MAZIE...MURPHY...CHOUTEAU...LOCUST
GROVE...ROSE...SALINA...SPAVINAW...STRANG...ADAIR...SNOWDALE STATE
PARK AND SPAVINAW STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3641 9497 3600 9502 3607 9546 3604 9587
      3642 9588 3642 9582 3645 9581 3649 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 005DEG 26KT 3636 9580 3640 9543
          3634 9509