Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING UP ON
OK/KS BORDER PRESENTLY CONTINUES TO SHOW TENDENCY OF DEVELOPMENT
ON THE WESTERN FLANK AS THE WHOLE COMPLEX DIVES SOUTH. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AXIS
OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY ORIENTED NEAR I-44. A LIMITED THREAT WILL
EXIST OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PRESENT
THROUGHOUT EASTERN OK. OTHER TERRAIN FORCED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
A PRE FIRST PERIOD WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS SOME OF NE OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 00Z BUT THERE IS A SHOT AT LEAST OF SOME MAKING IT INTO SE
OKLAHOMA AS WELL. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD BE GONE AFTER 06Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
ALSO LEADS TO A MODEST BREAK DOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL
KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. BEYOND
THAT STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT BOOMING WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 75 THROUGH MID WEEK BUT BY
LATE NEXT WEEK HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...AND RECENT BIAS ADJUSTMENT
TO MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS WELL OVER 100 BY END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75 100  77  98 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  98  75  96 /  20  20  30  30
MLC   71  95  71  93 /  20  10  20  20
BVO   66 100  69  99 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   65  94  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
BYV   69  93  68  92 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   72  99  71  97 /  30  10  10  20
MIO   70 100  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
F10   70 100  72  96 /  30  10  10  20
HHW   73  93  72  91 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

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