Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE H5 TROUGH IS STARTING TO PIVOT EAST. MAJOR PORTION OF THE
TROUGH EJECTS TODAY...WITH REMAINDER OF TROUGH SWEEPING EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SQUALL LINE AND PSEUDO FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR TODAY. MAIN COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR OMA-CDS LINE BY 7 PM TONIGHT...THEN SWING QUICKLY
EAST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION.
TROUGH APPEARS TO MINOR OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND FLOW
BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS H5 TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE FLOW AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
TIMING ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT BOTH SEE THIS DEVELOPMENT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT. MAJOR TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS
BY NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...PUTTING OK IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY IS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. ANTICIPATE THE LINE OF STORMS TO BE FROM ABOUT
NOWATA TO TULSA TO OKEMAH AROUND 6-7 AM. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE
EXISTING LINE TO CARRY ALL THE PRECIPITATION...AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED OR DROPPED POPS BEHIND THE LINE.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ECMWF IN A COUPLE OF PERIODS.

WIND GUSTS ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND LATEST RUC RELAXES
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY.
STILL...THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 30 MPH UNTIL THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  47  72  49 /  50  10   0  10
FSM   79  50  72  48 /  80  10  10  10
MLC   78  47  74  47 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   72  46  72  43 /  30  20   0  10
FYV   71  45  69  42 /  80  20   0  10
BYV   73  46  68  46 /  80  20  10  10
MKO   75  47  74  47 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   76  46  70  46 /  70  20   0  10
F10   76  48  72  50 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   77  49  75  50 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS REDUCED...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS TO 70
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

OKZ065>067-070-071-073-151245-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-WAGONER
OK-
643 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH AND NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN WAGONER

AT 644 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF SCIPIO TO 33 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
WELEETKA...HENRYETTA...DEWAR...GRAYSON...HOFFMAN...ASHLAND...HANNA...
SCIPIO...HAYWOOD...BOYNTON...RAIFORD...COUNCIL HILL...MCALESTER...
STIDHAM...VIVIAN...TAFT...INDIANOLA...LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...
OKTAHA...CANADIAN...CROWDER...RENTIESVILLE...CHECOTAH...EUFAULA AND
TULLAHASSEE.

A LARGE PORTION OF MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN
OKFUSKEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG AND
SOUTHERN WAGONER COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
745 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3594 9532 3496 9570 3467 9607 3468 9609
      3505 9610 3507 9607 3509 9607 3513 9601
      3514 9602 3516 9599 3528 9599 3529 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 220DEG 52KT 3512 9615 3444 9646

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
723 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 AM     HAIL             SAND SPRINGS            36.14N 96.11W
04/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

ARZ001-OKZ058-062-063-151315-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-
741 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA

AT 741 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF WYANDOTTE TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSE...
JAY...LEACH...TWIN OAKS...KANSAS...MAYSVILLE...COLCORD...GRAVETTE...
DECATUR...GENTRY...SILOAM SPRINGS AND HIWASSE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3691 9462 3651 9461 3650 9419 3618 9450
      3616 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 270DEG 44KT 3697 9442 3604 9520

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
744 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-073>075-151315-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE
OK-PITTSBURG OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
744 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG AND WESTERN LATIMER

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...EASTERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHERN ROGERS...
     SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MUSKOGEE

AT 744 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CATOOSA TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIOWA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN HASKELL...MCINTOSH...SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...
WESTERN MUSKOGEE...EASTERN OKMULGEE...PITTSBURG...SOUTHERN ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA...WAGONER AND WESTERN LATIMER COUNTIES WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 815 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3468 9589 3468 9601 3628 9581 3624 9522
      3591 9529 3589 9527 3473 9541 3458 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 247DEG 39KT 3622 9570 3466 9591