Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE H5 TROUGH IS STARTING TO PIVOT EAST. MAJOR PORTION OF THE
TROUGH EJECTS TODAY...WITH REMAINDER OF TROUGH SWEEPING EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SQUALL LINE AND PSEUDO FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR TODAY. MAIN COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR OMA-CDS LINE BY 7 PM TONIGHT...THEN SWING QUICKLY
EAST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION.
TROUGH APPEARS TO MINOR OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND FLOW
BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS H5 TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE FLOW AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
TIMING ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT...BUT BOTH SEE THIS DEVELOPMENT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT. MAJOR TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS
BY NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...PUTTING OK IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY IS THE
PRIMARY ISSUE. ANTICIPATE THE LINE OF STORMS TO BE FROM ABOUT
NOWATA TO TULSA TO OKEMAH AROUND 6-7 AM. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE
EXISTING LINE TO CARRY ALL THE PRECIPITATION...AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED OR DROPPED POPS BEHIND THE LINE.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ECMWF IN A COUPLE OF PERIODS.

WIND GUSTS ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND LATEST RUC RELAXES
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY.
STILL...THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 30 MPH UNTIL THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  47  72  49 /  50  10   0  10
FSM   79  50  72  48 /  80  10  10  10
MLC   78  47  74  47 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   72  46  72  43 /  30  20   0  10
FYV   71  45  69  42 /  80  20   0  10
BYV   73  46  68  46 /  80  20  10  10
MKO   75  47  74  47 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   76  46  70  46 /  70  20   0  10
F10   76  48  72  50 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   77  49  75  50 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS REDUCED...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WINDS TO 70
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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