Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563

August 5, 201226 counties in New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 5, 2012, 12:42 PM EDT for 26 counties in New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 5, 2012, 12:42 PM EDT (16:42 UTC)
Expired
Aug 5, 2012, 7:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 26 counties

Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 5, 12:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie50 min
Aug 5, 1:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFErie51 min
Aug 5, 1:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFErie39 min
Aug 5, 1:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFMonroe49 min
Aug 5, 2:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFGenesee28 min
Aug 5, 2:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFGenesee, Livingston, Wyoming33 min
Aug 5, 2:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFWayne50 min
Aug 5, 2:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFMonroe21 min
Aug 5, 2:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFMonroe, Ontario33 min
Aug 5, 3:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCayuga, Oswego64 min
Aug 5, 3:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego63 min
Aug 5, 3:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson26 min
Aug 5, 3:57 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBUFJefferson111 min
Aug 5, 4:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis49 min
Aug 5, 4:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFOswego32 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-08-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 128 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-08-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 177 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
128 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-41 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1179 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 5, 12:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more84 min
Aug 5, 2:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBronx, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Delaware, Dutchess and 10 more86 min
Aug 5, 4:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCayuga, Clinton, Cortland, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 13 more84 min
Aug 5, 6:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Putnam, Queens and 4 more2 hr
Aug 4, 10:46 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMercer119 min
Aug 5, 3:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBerks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware and 9 more5 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.