Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531

July 27, 201247 counties in North Carolina; 106 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 27, 2012, 1:54 PM EDT for 47 counties in North Carolina; 106 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2012, 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC)
Expired
Jul 27, 2012, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 153 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Wythe County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

31 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 2:07 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKTazewell65 min
Jul 27, 2:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Giles52 min
Jul 27, 2:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Chatham, Orange, Randolph29 min
Jul 27, 2:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHHalifax46 min
Jul 27, 3:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCampbell, Halifax, Pittsylvania, City of Danville56 min
Jul 27, 3:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Botetourt, Craig, Franklin, Roanoke, City of Roanoke and 1 more78 min
Jul 27, 3:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Amherst, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Covington and 1 more53 min
Jul 27, 4:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Franklin, Roanoke30 min
Jul 27, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCharlotte45 min
Jul 27, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Campbell, Franklin, Pittsylvania63 min
Jul 27, 4:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHForsyth47 min
Jul 27, 4:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHenry, Patrick68 min
Jul 27, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHGuilford60 min
Jul 27, 4:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg53 min
Jul 27, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Gloucester, James City, King and Queen, Mathews, Middlesex and 2 more47 min
Jul 27, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXNelson40 min
Jul 27, 5:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHPerson55 min
Jul 27, 5:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Appomattox, Buckingham65 min
Jul 27, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Dinwiddie, Prince George, Surry, Sussex, City of Petersburg33 min
Jul 27, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKRockingham, Stokes42 min
Jul 27, 5:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance58 min
Jul 27, 5:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQGreensville, Southampton, Sussex40 min
Jul 27, 5:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQGloucester, York, City of Hampton, City of Newport News, City of Poquoson27 min
Jul 27, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQGloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Surry, York, City of Hampton and 2 more41 min
Jul 27, 6:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Durham, Granville, Orange, Person56 min
Jul 27, 6:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Chatham, Orange, Randolph66 min
Jul 27, 6:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHFranklin, Nash, Vance, Warren54 min
Jul 27, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQIsle of Wight, Southampton, City of Franklin, City of Suffolk42 min
Jul 27, 7:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHMontgomery, Randolph, Stanly56 min
Jul 27, 7:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHChatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Wake55 min
Jul 27, 7:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Chatham, Lee, Moore, Orange, Randolph40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-07-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 408 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-07-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 20 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
408 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-166 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
912 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 26, 9:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 10 more84 min
Jul 27, 1:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRockingham, Stokes, Surry67 min
Jul 27, 1:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay and 11 more66 min
Jul 27, 4:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alleghany, Caswell, Forsyth, Granville, Guilford and 7 more53 min
Jul 27, 7:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBertie, Camden, Chatham, Chowan, Cumberland, Currituck and 27 more85 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.