Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516

Issued

Jul 24, 2012, 9:08 PM CDT (02:08 UTC)

Expired

Jul 25, 2012, 4:00 AM CDT

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1578Jul 24, 11:24 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1580Jul 25, 2:05 AM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1581Jul 25, 3:41 AM CDT

389 
WWUS20 KWNS 250211
SEL6
SPC WW 250211
MNZ000-NDZ000-250900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
       EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BRAINERD MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 514...WW 515...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE JMS...TO THE
N OF SURFACE FRONT...LIKELY BEING FORCED BY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET.  BASED ON 00Z ABR SOUNDING...AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 3000-3500
J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR...SETUP
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.


...MEAD

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.