Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.AVIATION...07/25/06Z ISSUANCE...
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS AGAIN IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR WITH
SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN VFR WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

UPDATE...
SPREAD THE ONSET OF RAIN NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF DULUTH.

SHORT TERM...
A VIGOROUS BUT SHALLOW BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS SPREADING A COOL MARINE
AIR MASS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE MARINE FRONT...CLEARLY VISIBLE
ON RADAR...HAS REACHED AITKIN...MILLE LACS LAKE...JUST NORTH OF
HINCKLEY...AND THE SAND HILLS NEAR HAYWARD. EXPECTED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLOW IS BEING FORCED UP OVER THE NOSE OF THIS MARINE
FRONT...CAUSING RAIN AND IMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. NO INFORMATION IS YET
AVAILABLE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA...WEAK SURFACE HIGH...AND THE
SOUTHERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT HAS LED TO DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGING TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ALONG WITH STRONG WAA/FGEN
FORCING. THE MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED OR REMAINED NORTHERLY WITH
THEIR AREA OF MAX RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE GFS/GEM/12Z NAM ALL ARE
RELATIVELY CLOSE HAVING THE MAX QPF FROM THE WALKER/GRAND RAPIDS
AREAS...EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE IRON RANGE/BORDER REGION TO THE
ARROWHEAD. THIS IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A
QUICK LOOK AT THE 18Z NAMS SHOWS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING MCS TONIGHT...PUTTING DULUTH IN A WEST TO
EAST BULLSEYE OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. WE WILL NOT ALTER OUR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BASED ON THIS RUN...BUT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TONIGHT'S DEVELOPING CONVECTION CLOSELY AND
ISSUE ANY NEEDED HEADLINES NECESSARY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TONIGHT...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. 925-850MB WAA IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ALONG WITH FGEN FORCING. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
AROUND 2 INCHES TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT TONIGHT WITH STRONG FORCING
AND HIGH MOISTURE...BUT WE'VE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONFIRM IN THEIR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. MODEL QPF FROM THE
GFS/GEM/NAM ALL HAVE 3 INCH BULLSEYES IN SPOTS THROUGH 18Z
WED...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST ZONES(EXCEPT THE 18Z
NAM WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH). THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER...WITH AMOUNTS TO 1.3 INCHES IN EASTERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z
WED. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH FOR MOST AREAS...3.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN
THE NORTH WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. WE WILL BE ISSUING
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE...COASTAL LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...WHICH IS MORE PRONE TO
FLOODING DUE TO THE TERRAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AREAS MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THIS INITIAL WATCH WITH LATER UPDATES.

THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO SEVERAL FEATURES STILL TO AFFECT THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IN THIS ZONAL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAKER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE AND IN THE WEST ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON
WEDNESDAY DUE THICKER CLOUD COVER/RAIN THAT WILL STILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE SOME CLEARING ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE EIGHTIES. ALOT
WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR AND THE RAIN
ENDS.

THE DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DROP TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
12Z THU. WE WILL DIMINISH POPS IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
KEEP SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR NORTH.

LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING TO OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
HANG ON LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE THE
NORTHLAND WITH MORE SUNNY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. AND SATURDAY WILL BE
WARMER AND SUNNY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  73  61  73 /  80  70  20  70
INL  59  82  59  73 /  70  60  50  60
BRD  67  84  63  77 /  90  60  20  60
HYR  66  79  61  78 /  70  70  20  60
ASX  64  74  61  76 /  80  80  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-251030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE.
DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS SET UP LATER THIS
EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ENLARGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND A PORTION OF FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOME COULD BE
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ROUGHLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...TO AITKIN TO PHILLIPS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND LATER
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-251030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE WATERS
AROUND THE DULUTH AND SUPERIOR AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EOM

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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