Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477

Issued

Jul 7, 2012, 11:41 AM EDT (15:41 UTC)

Expired

Jul 7, 2012, 7:00 PM EDT

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

10%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

2%

Ten or more severe wind reports

80%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

10%

Ten or more severe hail reports

20%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

5%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1424Jul 7, 11:19 AM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1425Jul 7, 1:36 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1430Jul 7, 3:57 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1431Jul 7, 5:43 PM EDT

123 
WWUS20 KWNS 071543
SEL7
SPC WW 071543
CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-072300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       WESTERN CONNECTICUT
       NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
       SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
       CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRIDGEPORT
CONNECTICUT.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF FAST MOVING STORMS OVER WRN NY HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.  STRONG WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE GROUND /40-50 KT AT 3-4
KM BASED ON AREA VAD PROFILES/ WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS THE CAP WEAKENS OVER
PARTS OF PA THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.


...WEISS

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.