Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462

July 4, 201225 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 4, 2012, 4:42 PM EDT for 25 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 4, 2012, 4:42 PM EDT (20:42 UTC)
Expired
Jul 4, 2012, 9:27 PM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 25 counties

Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRMecosta29 min
Jul 4, 5:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRIsabella59 min
Jul 4, 5:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXMacomb, Wayne78 min
Jul 4, 6:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXOakland73 min
Jul 4, 6:15 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGRRIsabella, Mecosta4 hr
Jul 4, 6:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRIsabella58 min
Jul 4, 6:39 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningDTXMacomb, Oakland, Wayne2 hr
Jul 4, 7:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXMacomb, Oakland, Wayne73 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2012-07-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2763 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2012-07-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2763 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1189 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 3:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArenac, Bay, Clare, Genesee, Gladwin, Gratiot and 22 more91 min
Jul 4, 4:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Ontonagon93 min
Jul 4, 6:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Iron, Luce and 4 more54 min
Jul 4, 7:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMonroe, Wayne2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.