Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 853

May 20, 20124 counties in Illinois; Walworth County, Waukesha County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 20, 2012, 3:50 PM CDT for 4 counties in Illinois; Walworth County, Waukesha County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 20, 2012, 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC)
Expired
May 20, 2012, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Kane County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Walworth County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 693 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 39 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
693 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1669 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

179 
ACUS11 KWNS 202050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202050 
ILZ000-WIZ000-202215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL THROUGH SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 202050Z - 202215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE
SEGMENT OVER NCNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND AS IT MOVES INTO NERN IL AND SERN WI. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE SEGMENT. ACTIVITY IS FORMING
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 30-35F BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE /1000-1500 J/KG/ INSTABILITY. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS
THAT HAVE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES ABOVE 5 KM. CONCERN IS THAT AS
STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR...THE THREAT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   43078792 42098789 41728814 41868896 43088833 43078792

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 20, 1:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Brown, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, DeKalb and 32 more118 min
May 20, 1:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Clinton, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton and 18 more87 min
May 20, 10:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Clark, Florence, Forest, Jackson, Juneau and 18 more113 min
May 20, 12:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Brown, Calumet, Clark, Door, Florence and 24 more7 hr
May 20, 2:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calumet, Florence, Forest, Langlade and 12 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.